NFL Spread Picks for Every Game in Week 7 (Mike Tomlin Thrives as Underdog)
By Peter Dewey
Looking to bet on the NFL in Week 7?
You’ve come to the right place, as every week I am sharing my against the spread picks for every NFL game on the slate.
While it wasn’t the best showing in Week 6 – with the Los Angeles Chargers failing to cover on Monday Night – we’re still over .500 on the season with these picks.
- Week 6 Record: 6-9
- Season Record: 47-46
For more Week 7 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Admittedly, this hasn’t been the best stretch of weeks for my against the spread picks, but with 13 games on the slate in Week 7 and several spreads of less than three points, I’m hoping to get back on track.
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 7.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $200 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game!
Here is who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 7:
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars +3
If Trevor Lawrence (knee) plays in this game, I think the Jaguars can pull off an upset.
The Saints are 26th in yards per play on offense and have really struggled scoring the ball this season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are on a three-game winning streak, outscoring their opponents by 38 points over that stretch.
Since last season, Jacksonville is 10-6 against the spread as an underdog and 4-2 ATS overall in 2023. I’ll trust the Jags getting this many points.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Spread Pick
- Pick: Commanders -2
The Giants simply can’t score, ranking dead last in the NFL in points scored and yards per play.
If Daniel Jones (neck) sits again, that’s an even bigger downgrade to the offense. While the Commanders haven’t been great this season, they have beaten inferior teams (Denver, Arizona, Atlanta). New York falls in that category.
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Spread Pick
- Pick: Browns -2
This spread could be on the move if Deshaun Watson plays in Week 7, but I trust the Cleveland defense regardless.
This team shut down and beat the once-undefeated San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, and now the Browns face Gardner Minshew? This is going to be a tough matchup for Indy’s offense.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Patriots +9
Buffalo has been too inconsistent for me to lay double digits with this team on the road.
The Patriots are not good, struggling to score, but they have a good defense – ranking inside the top 10 in the league in yards per play allowed. They could follow a script to cover like the Giants did in Week 6 against Buffalo.
This is just too many points to give Bill Belichick’s team at home.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens -3
The Lions’ running game could be trouble in this game with David Montgomery (ribs) and Jahmyr Gibbs both potentially out.
Not only that, but Lamar Jackson is 17-4 against the spread as a favorite of 3 or less or an underdog in his career.
I’ll trust that trend and back Lamar at home.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears Spread Pick
- Pick: Bears +3
This may be a crazy pick, but I do think Chicago can keep things close with the Raiders – even with Justin Fields doubtful for this game.
The Raiders also may not have their quarterback after Jimmy Garoppolo left Week 6 with a back injury. If this ends up being a battle of backup quarterbacks, I’d love getting three points with the home team.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
I don’t believe in Desmond Ridder, and the Falcons are a dreadful 1-5 against the spread so far this season, despite playing most of their games at home.
Tampa Bay didn’t play well against a good Lions team in Week 6, but this is a bounce-back spot for Baker Mayfield and this offense. Atlanta’s defense is good, but the team has turned the ball over 10 times this season which should give the Bucs some favorable field position.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams Spread Pick
- Pick: Steelers +3
The Steelers’ pass rush may wreak havoc against a weak Los Angeles Rams offensive line, and there’s one key trend that I can’t overlook in this matchup.
Since taking over as the Steleers’ head coach, Mike Tomlin has a 54-31-5 against the spread record as an underdog, the best mark in the NFL. I like taking his squad as a 3-point dog this week.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Spread Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -7.5
Seattle is due for some positive offensive regression after struggling against the Bengals in Week 6.
The Cardinals have allowed the sixth most points in the NFL, and they’ve been dominated the last three weeks, getting outscored by 50 points in those matchups.
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick
- Pick: Packers -1
Denver is 0-3 against the spread at home and 0-5-1 against the spread on the season.
Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off a bye week and could be getting Aaron Jones back against a Denver defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run.
The Broncos are a must fade until further notice.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Patrick Mahomes dominates the AFC West, going 28-3 straight up in his career.
The Chargers are on a short week after playing on Monday night, and their defense has left a lot to be desired in 2023. I think Mahomes carves them up en route to an easy win.
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles -2
This is the second real test for Miami this season, and the team lost by 28 points on the road in the first one against Buffalo.
After losing to the New York Jets in Week 6, I think the Eagles come into this matchup motivated to get back to their winning ways.
This is too few points for Philly at home, where it is 14-7 under Nick Sirianni.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick
- Pick: Vikings +6.5
I think San Francisco wins this game, but the Vikings may be able to keep this close.
San Fran’s offense struggled without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey in Week 6, and that may be the case again in Week 7. Depending on their status, I don’t mind taking Minnesota at just inside a touchdown.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.