Week 3 of the NFL season was a huge one for my spread picks, hitting 10 of the 16 games on the slate, despite the large number of upsets that there were to big favorites.
That moves our season-long record back to .500.
- Week 3 Record: 10-6
- Season Record: 24-24
For more Week 4 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
I’m looking to keep the positive momentum going in Week 4 with picks for every single game, including the first international game in London this weekend.
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 4.
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With that offer in mind, here’s who I think will win every game in Week 4!
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Pick
- Pick: Lions -1.5
Detroit is the best team against the spread since Dan Campbell took over as the team’s head coach, and now it gets to face a Green Bay offense that has been average under Jordan Love.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -3
I’m not sold on Desmond Ridder, who struggled with a ton of pass attempts in Week 3, losing to the Lions 20-6. If the Jaguars can slow the run game of Atlanta, they should come out with an easy win.
Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Spread Pick
- Pick: Bears +3.5
Both of these teams stink, but I’ll gladly take the points with a home dog against the worst defense in the NFL. The Broncos are 0-3 ATS this season, so asking them to cover this many points is too rich for my blood.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens +3
Lamar Jackson as an underdog or a favorite of three or less? 16-4 against the spread. I think the Ravens win outright this week.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -3
This is going to be a tough road matchup for Miami, and the Bills have dominated them winning seven of their last eight regular season meetings. I also think the Bills, who have outscored their last two opponents 75-13, may be undervalued since their Week 1 loss.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans +3
The Steelers’ defense is elite, which could give CJ Stroud problems, but I don’t trust Kenny Pickett to light the scoreboard up in this game. I think Houston hangs around after a huge upset win in Week 3.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers Spread Pick
- Pick: Vikings -4
Bryce Young is on track to return from an ankle injury this week, and the Panthers offense has been worse with him than it was with Andy Dalton.
Carolina will have a hard time keeping up with a Vikings team that is second in the league in offensive yards per play this season.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams +1
Sean McVay as a road underdog since taking over in Los Angeles? 12-8-3 against the spread.
I think the Rams should be able to pull off an upset win against a Colts team that relied on four 50-yard field goals to win in Week 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Pick
- Pick: Bucs +3
After watching the Saints blow a 17-0 lead without Derek Carr in Week 3, I have no interest in laying this many points with them against Tampa Bay, who hasn’t looked awful in 2023.
The Bucs are 2-1 against the spread and could make things tough on Jameis Winston if Carr can’t go.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles -8.5
The Commanders were exposed in Week 3, getting blown out by the Buffalo Bills. I expect a similar result in Week 4.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans Spread Pick
- Pick: Bengals -2
I reluctantly am betting on Cincy, but I think the team is better equipped to turn around its offensive struggles than the Titans at this point in the season.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Spread Pick
- Pick: Raiders +5
The Chargers have played a bunch of close games this season, and I’m not sold on them winning easily against a division opponent. They are just 1-2 against the spread this season.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Spread Pick
- Pick: Patriots +7
Bill Belichick’s group should be in a good spot to cover against a Dallas team that struggled against Arizona.
The Patriots can match Dallas defensively, and a low-scoring game is going to benefit the team that is getting the points.
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -14
Arizona has been great this season in terms of covering the spread, but I don’t think the team has the talent to compete with a 49ers team that is top four in the league in offense and defense this season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -9.5
Zach Wilson is not going to lead the Jets to enough points for them to stay in this game. I love Kansas City this week.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants Spread Pick
- Pick: Seahawks +1
Daniel Jones is 1-11 straight up in primetime games in his career, and the Giants may not have Saquon Barkley in Week 4.
Seattle is another dog I’m taking to win outright.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.