It’s been a year of the underdog so far in 2023, with underdogs covering the spread in 19 of the 32 games through the first two weeks of the season.
Unfortunately, after a strong Week 1, I took a step back in Week 2 in my against the spread picks, failing to cash in on the underdog trend.
- Week 2 Record: 5-11
- Season Record: 14-18
For more Week 3 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
That sets up for a bounce-back in Week 3, but there are several spreads of eight points or more on the slate. How should we attack them?
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 3.
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Here’s my ATS pick for every Week 3 game:
New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -10
This is a lot of points to lay with the 49ers, but they’ve won by 23 and seven in their first two games and were up by 10 against the Rams before a last-second field goal gave Los Angeles the cover.
As a home favorite under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 17-16-1 against the spread, and they should be able to handle a Giants team that has failed to cover this season.
New York also may not have running back Saquon Barkley in this game, which would seriously hurt the team's offense.
Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins Spread Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -6.5
The Broncos have failed to cover in back-to-back games as home favorites, and now they go on the road against the No. 1 offense in the NFL this season. That’s a recipe for disaster.
Tua Tagovailoa has been dominant at home in his career (15-4 straight up), and I question whether this Denver defense that allowed 35 points to Washington last week can slow down Miami.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Colts +8
This is a lot of points to give a Colts team that has arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL in Gardner Minshew.
While I do think the Ravens win this game, asking them to win by more than a touchdown could be tough considering Indy is No. 11 in yards per play allowed this season. I think Minshew can get it done if Anthony Richardson (concussion) is ruled out.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Pick
- Pick: Titans +3
Since Mike Vrabel took over as the Titan’s head coach in 2018, the team is 27-16-1 against the spread as an underdog.
The Browns now don’t have star running back Nick Chubb and are taking on the No. 2 run defense in the NFL so far this season. Deshaun Watson is going to have a hard time winning this game, never mind covering the three points as well.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Spread Pick
- Pick: Patriots -3
Zach Wilson has two touchdown passes and seven interceptions in four games against the Patriots in his career. He struggled in Week 2 against Dallas, and I expect Bill Belichick to throw the kitchen sink at him in Week 3.
I love the Pats to win and cover this week.
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -6.5
Washington is 2-0 on the season, but the team has only beaten the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos by a combined six points.
Buffalo has a much better offense than those teams, and it’s coming off a 38-point showing against Las Vegas. I think the Commanders come back to earth in Week 3.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick
- Pick: Falcons +3.5
Atlanta is 2-0 on the season and has showcased a much-improved defense, allowing the third fewest yards per play in the NFL this season.
Because the team likes to run the ball (fourth in rushing attempts in 2023), it should be able to use a lot of clock and keep this Detroit offense off the field. I love getting three and the hook in this game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Pick
- Pick: Saints +2
I’m not sold on the Packers just yet – especially if Aaron Jones (hamstring) misses this game.
Jordan Love is completing just 55.8 percent of his passes and the Saints defense ranks in the top six in the league in yards per play allowed. Don’t be shocked if New Orleans pulls off an upset this week.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans +9.5
I don’t love how much this spread has ballooned in Week 3 considering the Jags didn’t score a touchdown in Week 2.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Houston pull off a backdoor cover with CJ Stroud showcasing his arm in Week 2 – throwing for 384 yards and two scores.
This is just a few too many points for me to lay with the 1-1 Jags.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick
- Pick: Vikings -1
The Chargers have the worst defense in the NFL this season, allowing nearly seven yards per play.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league in net yards per play and covered against the Eagles last week despite turnover woes.
I think this is the week the Vikings bounce back and pick up a win.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks Spread Pick
- Pick: Panthers +6
The Panthers picked up a late touchdown and two-point conversion to cover in Week 2, and I just can’t quit them.
While Seattle’s offense bounced back in Week 2, the team is still struggling on defense, allowing 5.9 yards per play – the third worst mark in the NFL.
Maybe that’s what Bryce Young needs to get going early in his NFL career.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals Spread Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -12
Arizona is 2-0 against the spread this season, but we know that Dallas can beat up on bad teams. The Cowboys are outscoring their opponents 70-10 this season, easily covering in both of their games.
I don’t have any faith in the Cardinals keeping this game close against a team destined to make the playoffs.
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -12.5
The Bears lost by 18 to the Green Bay Packers and 10 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, they go on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs.
Yeah, KC is going to win this game going away, especially since the team’s defense allowed just nine points to Jacksonville in Week 2. The Bears are in trouble.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Spread Pick
- Pick: Steelers +2.5
Since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007, the Steelers are 36-25-2 against the spread as road dogs.
The Raiders looked uninspiring in Week 2, allowing 38 points in a massive loss to the Buffalo Bills. We know this Steelers defense is elite (two defensive scores in Week 2), so I’ll take them to at least keep this close.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles -5
Call me crazy, but I’m sold on the Buccaneers who have a net yards per play of -0.3 this season.
After a subpar Week 1, the Eagles offense was clicking against Minnesota in Week 2. It’s only a matter of time before the defending champs start dominating after a 1-1 ATS start to the season.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams +2
I already missed the line movement on this one after the game opened at Rams +6.5, but with Joe Burrow up in the air for this matchup, I wouldn’t be shocked if Los Angeles pulls off the upset.
The Rams are 2-0 against the spread this season, and there’s a possibility they’ll be facing Jake Browning, who has attempted one NFL pass. I’ll take the points on Monday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.