NFL Spread Picks for Super Bowl 2024 (How to Bet 49ers vs. Chiefs Against the Spread)
By Peter Dewey
Super Bowl 58 is here, and we have a close spread to bet on between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
Doesn't this feel eerily similar to last season when the Chiefs were also set as underdogs in the Super Bowl? Kansas City is a two-point dog -- 2.5 at FanDuel -- as it looks to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
The AFC and NFC title games were kind to us in our spread picks, as I bet on both dogs to cover and they came through, although the Detroit Lions needed a crazy backdoor after blowing a 17-point lead.
Now, it's time for the final spread pick of the season with a chance to finish 11 games over .500.
- Championship Weekend Record: 2-0
- Season Record: 145-135-4
Whether you decide to tail or fade this spread pick, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook this week.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs +2
If oddsmakers are going to keep setting Patrick Mahomes as an underdog – especially in the playoffs – I’m going to keep betting on him.
In his NFL career, Mahomes has been an underdog 12 times, including three times in his last four playoff games.
He’s 10-1-1 against the spread in those games and 9-3 straight up. That includes two playoff wins as an underdog this season in Buffalo and Baltimore and the Super Bowl win against Philadelphia last season.
Why must oddsmakers not trust the best quarterback in the NFL?
The Chiefs also have an elite defense – No. 2 in the league in points allowed – that hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in a game this season.
The 49ers worry me, they are 0-2 against the spread this postseason and were just 3-10 ATS as home favorites this season overall. Now, they’re in a neutral site game against a team that has played in three Super Bowls in the last five seasons.
San Francisco’s defense looked very beatable, especially on the ground, against Detroit in the NFC title game. I don’t think the 49ers will be able to slow down this Chiefs offense enough to win this game, so why not take the points with Kansas City to give myself a little extra cushion?
Hopefully, Mahomes’ crazy ATS record comes through once again this week.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.