Week 10 was a solid start to the second half of the NFL season in my weekly straight up picks – even though there were a few upsets (Cleveland, Houston) that I certainly didn’t expect.
With the Denver Broncos pulling off a massive upset on Monday Night Football, we finished the week with a 9-5 record!
Let’s keep the positive weeks going, especially with the 14-game slate in Week 12 that features some marquee primetime matchups including a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
- Week 10 Record: 9-5
- Season Long Record: 88-60
For more Week 11 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Whether you decide to tail or fade these moneyline picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 11.
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With that offer in mind, here’s who I think will win every game in Week 11!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bengals +160
I’m going to take a shot on Cincy in a short week, especially after Baltimore blew a double-digit lead to the Cleveland Browns last week.
The Bengals need this game with the rest of the AFC North sitting at 6-3 or better. Even if Tee Higgins doesn’t play, Ja’Marr Chase looked no worse for wear in Week 10, a sign that Cincy’s offense will stay humming.
It’s a risky pick, but I don’t mind the Bengals on Thursday night.
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Patriots Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Commanders -500
I don’t think the Giants win a game the rest of the season – even if Tyrod Taylor returns.
This team ranks 32nd in yards per play on offense and 29th in yards per play allowed on defense. They also lost Kayvon Thibodeaux to an injury in Week 10. Things can’t get much worse, and if Tommy DeVito is under center, New York isn’t winning this game on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Steelers +164
Again, call me crazy with these AFC North upsets, but Deshaun Watson had an MRI on his ankle on Monday, and we’ve seen the Browns struggle with P.J. Walker under center at times this season.
Pittsburgh hasn’t outgained an opponent all season, yet Mike Tomlin’s team is 6-3. If Watson is limited or sits, I absolutely love the Steelers.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Texans -198
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals did take down the Atlanta Falcons last week, but Houston is a massive step up in competition. CJ Stroud is red hot right now, thrusting himself in the MVP conversation with his play the last two weeks.
I like Houston to win this game at home.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -298
Tennessee’s offense has been stuck in mud for most of the 2023 season, and it scored just six points against a weak Tampa Bay defense in Week 10.
I would be shocked to see Jacksonville lose another game at home after it was embarrassed by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -675
It was fun for the Raiders and their fans to beat the inept offenses in the New York Giants and New York Jets, but now they have to face Tyreek Hill and the high-powered Dolphins attack – in Miami.
I think the Dolphins, who are fresh off a bye and could be getting De’Von Achane back, roll in this matchup.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -600
If there is one thing Dallas has done well this season, it’s destroy inferior competition (outside of the team’s loss to Arizona).
The Cowboys are looking like true contenders with Dak Prescott (17 touchdowns, six picks) playing some of the best football of his career. I’ll roll with Dallas to dominate the one-win Panthers in Week 11.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Lions -485
Detroit is coming off a hard-fought road win against the Los Angeles Chargers, and now the team is back at home to take on the Chicago Bears, who have overall been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.
Even if Justin Fields is back, I don’t see Chicago having the offensive firepower to keep up with the Lions’ attack, which has scored the seventh-most points in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chargers -166
The Packers simply haven’t been good enough on offense for me to back them in this game. The Chargers need a win to get back to .500 and stay in the playoff picture, and they at least gave Detroit a close game in Week 10.
Green Bay squandered multiple chances to beat the Steelers with turnovers, and I can’t trust Jordan Love to make the plays necessary to pull off this upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -575
Tampa Bay got back in the win column in Week 10, but now it has to take on a San Fran team that has renewed energy off of the bye.
The 49ers won 34-3 against the Jaguars last week, and I think they’re a dangerous team in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay’s No. 19 defense is going to have a hard time containing the 49ers.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills -325
The Jets cannot score the football, failing to register an offensive touchdown in back-to-back weeks, and I think they’ll struggle on the road in Buffalo.
Don’t let New York’s early-season upset of the Bills fool you here. This team has been bad for weeks, and it shouldn’t be trusted against an above-average opponent.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -122
The Rams are hoping to get Matthew Stafford back for this game, but they entered the bye on a massive losing streak.
Seattle is still in the conversation to win the NFC West and has been the better offensive team to this point in the season. While the Rams did blast Seattle in Week 1 on the road, I think the Seahawks return the favor this week.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Vikings +115
The fun doesn’t stop here for the Minnesota Vikings. The team has won five straight games, and Josh Dobbs has filled in well at quarterback the last two weeks. Now, the Vikings get a Denver team that has struggled on defense in 2023.
The Vikings have been elite against the run this season, a bad sign for a Denver offense that has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. Don’t be shocked if Dobbs pulls off another upset.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -155
This game could go either way, but I’ll give the home team the edge because of one man:
Patrick Mahomes is 45-10 at home in his career (regular season and playoffs).
Philly is going to need its defense to show up in a big way in this game, but I think Mahomes and the Chiefs can win this game out of the bye. They are 12-3 overall after a bye in the Andy Reid era.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.