Thanksgiving Day/Week is upon us in the NFL, with three great games scheduled for the holiday and our first Black Friday matchup as well between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
With all of these early week picks, we’ll have an idea of how these straight up picks will do prior to Sunday’s action even kicking off.
With no teams on the bye this week, we have 16 (!!) games to dive into for the first time in several weeks. Let’s recap our record and then jump into this week’s selections.
- Week 11 Record: 7-7
- Season Long Record: 95-67
For more Week 12 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $150 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game and their team wins!
Here’s who I think will win every game in Week 12!
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Lions -395
Detroit may have gotten a wake up call in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears, and I think the team snaps its six-game losing streak on Thanksgiving. Green Bay may not have Aaron Jones, which would be a big blow to an already struggling offense.
The Lions are 4-1 at Ford Field this season.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Patriots Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -600
Dallas has beat up on poor teams all season, and I don’t expect this matchup to be any different.
Washington is reeling after losing to the New York Giants (again), and the team’s deadline moves showed that it wasn’t set on contending for a playoff spot this season. I expect Dak Prescott to pick apart a defense that allowed three passing touchdowns to Tommy DeVito last week.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -290
Geno Smith seems to have a good chance to play this week, but he’s still going to be banged up on a short week against a division rival.
San Francisco has looked terrific out of the bye week, and I have no interest in fading this team when it could end up facing Drew Lock.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -500
Tim Boyle is going to get the start for the New York Jets, which is not a great sign for their chances of winning this game.
New York has one offensive touchdown in the last three games, and now it has to take on arguably the most explosive offense in the league. For what it’s worth, Miami is undefeated against teams with losing records this season.
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Patriots -175
This is quite possibly the worst game of the week, but I’m going to take the Patriots to win this matchup.
Both of these teams want the No. 1 pick at this point, but the Giants and Tommy DeVito may have cashed in all their luck for a win last week. I think Bill Belichick can make things tough on DeVito in Week 12.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Steelers -118
This could be a battle of two bad offenses, but I don’t trust Jake Browning in his first career start – even at home.
The Cincy offense did very little after Joe Burrow exited last week, and the Steelers need this game after blowing a prime opportunity in Week 11 against the Cleveland Browns.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -118
If Jacksonville loses this game, the Texans are the No. 1 team in the AFC South.
However, I don’t see that happening.
Houston has turned the ball over a little too much for my liking as of late, but it escaped Cincy (thanks to a Tyler Boyd dropped TD) and Arizona (thanks to three failed fourth down attempts) the last two weeks.
Jacksonville is coming off an impressive win, and it’s been elite against the spread, going 7-3 overall and 5-1 as a favorite.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers +114
The Colts are coming off a bye, but I like Tampa to take advantage of this Indy secondary that is allowing 6.1 net yards per pass attempt this season.
The Buccaneers hung around with San Fran last week, and this is a much more favorable matchup for Baker Mayfield and company.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Saints -112
The Falcons are going back to turnover machine Desmond Ridder against the defense that has forced the fourth most turnovers in the NFL.
That’s a disaster waiting to happen. I love the Saints to take command of the NFC South this week.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Panthers +160
Both of these teams stink – especially Carolina on offense – and are playing rookie quarterbacks. I’ll take a shot on the Panthers as underdogs here, although this game is truly a toss up in my eyes.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Rams -112
Cooper Kupp (ankle) may miss this game, but the Rams still found a way to win in Week 11 without him.
The Cardinals have been getting killed through the air this season, and that’s a good sign for the Rams who have been a pass-happy offense at times this season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -470
Patrick Mahomes only has four losses to AFC West opponents in his NFL career, and he lost his last game against them (to Denver) in Week 8.
It’s not going to happen two times in a row, especially with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Raiders. Las Vegas struggled on offense against a Miami defense that isn’t nearly as good as Kansas City’s in Week 11.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Browns +114
The Denver Broncos have won four in a row, but this is a tough matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game, as Denver hasn’t been able to convert possessions into touchdowns lately. That favors Cleveland’s elite defense.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles -180
We’ve seen this Buffalo team struggle at times this season with turnovers, and now it has to face an elite Eagles team that is the class of the NFC.
Josh Allen got a “feel good” win against the New York Jets, but this is a brutal road test. Philly is a perfect 4-0 at home this season.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -205
Can we trust the Chargers ever again? I don’t think so.
This team keeps letting Justin Herbert down with drops, and the Chargers at 4-6 have gone 1-4 against teams above .500 this season.
Baltimore is on fire right now, and even without Mark Andrews I think the team secures a win heading into its bye week.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Vikings -170
Chicago’s collapse in Week 11 may have been the nail in the coffin.
Now, it may have to face Justin Jefferson in Week 12. The Vikings are hungry after turnovers cost them a game against Denver, and they’ve won five of their last six contests. I love them at home in primetime.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.