NFL Straight Up Picks for Every Game in Week 14 (Bills, Eagles, Broncos Buy Low Candidates)
By Peter Dewey
We’re down to the final five weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season, and Week 14 is the final time there will be teams on the bye.
The Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals will both have the week off, which means there are 15 games to bet this week!
After going over .500 – but not by much – in Week 13, I’m hoping to pull off a monster week in the 15-game slate in the NFL in Week 14.
Still, on the season we’re well above .500. Let’s keep that rolling, shall we?
- Week 13 Record: 7-5
- Season Long Record: 111-78
For more Week 14 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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Here’s who I think will win every game in Week 14!
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Steelers -258
Listen, Pittsburgh had a bad loss to Arizona in Week 13, but the Patriots may just be even worse.
Even with Kenny Pickett out, I don’t see a huge downgrade to this Pittsburgh offense. The Patriots, on the other hand, didn’t score in Week 13 and have just 13 total points in the last three weeks.
I can’t bet on them to win here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Patriots Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers +114
Every chance that I get to fade the Falcons, I’m going to. This team scored just 13 points against the New York Jets, and it has dealt with turnover problems (18 in 12 games) all season.
Tampa Bay is in the top half of the league in forcing turnovers on defense, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the team keep this close against a struggling Atlanta offense (23rd in the NFL in yards per play).
Give me the Bucs as an early-Sunday upset pick.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Colts -110
It may be time for me to come around on the fact that the Colts may actually be a good football team.
Indy is 15th in yards per play on offense and 12th on defense, and now the team gets to face a backup quarterback in Jake Browning. While he played well against Jacksonville last week, I'm still not quite sold on backing Browning to win again.
I think the Colts move to 8-5.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars +125
The Browns may be starting Joe Flacco again, or they could be going to Dorian Thompson-Robinson if he clears concussion protocol.
Neither is an inspiring option, even with Trevor Lawrence banged up for the Jaguars.
This line has moved six points since the Lawrence injury, so now I'll jump on the Jags in what should be a pretty even matchup.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Texans -285
Houston picked up a massive win over Denver in Week 13, and now it gets to face a Jets team that could be going back to Zach Wilson at quarterback.
New York cannot score touchdowns, and the team has just 58 points in the last six weeks. That won’t get it done against CJ Stroud and this Houston attack.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -325
The Rams have been playing some great football as of late, but this is a step up in glass against a Ravens team that should be fresh after a bye.
Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 13-4 after a bye – the second best record in the NFL since 2008. I’ll take them here.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Lions -170
The Bears nearly stole a game from the Lions in Detroit earlier this season, and now they’re coming off a bye to play them in Week 14. Do we have an upset on our hands?
I have to lean no here. The Lions are actually an impressive 4-0 ATS as road favorites this season. I think their defense bounces back a little to keep the Bears at bay.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Saints -230
Derek Carr is in concussion protocol, but that may not hurt the Saints as much as we’d expect. The team has not performed well as of late, and it desperately needs a win to stay alive in the NFC South.
The Panthers have just one win on the season and have covered the spread just two times. I’m fading them on the road.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Vikings -155
This game features two teams coming off a bye, but I still think the Vikings have the quarterback edge in Josh Dobbs.
The Raiders are on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs, while Minnesota has a much better shot of getting in. I just have a hard time backing a Raiders team that ranks 25th in yards per play on offense and 23rd in yards per play allowed on defense.
I think the Vikings are able to bounce back from their ugly Monday Night Football Showing in Week 12.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -550
Seattle is reeling right now, losing three straight, while the 49ers haven’t lost since their bye week.
San Francisco just blew out the Philadelphia Eagles on the road, so I have no issue taking it at home. When Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy, the 49ers are 21-0.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Broncos +124
Did three Russell Wilson picks doom the Broncos in Week 13? Yes.
However, they’re still 6-6 and they get to take on a Chargers team that scored just six points against the awful New England Patriots last week.
Denver’s defense has been much improved as of late, and I think the team bounces back in Los Angeles – where it may feel like a home game for Denver.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills +120
Call me crazy, but the Chiefs are in trouble. The team has not been able to get things going on offense, and the defense started to falter in Week 13 – allowing 27 points to Green Bay.
While Buffalo is 6-6, the team has a +101 point differential this season. I think the Bills are live for the upset win.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles +150
The ultimate buy-low spot on the Eagles.
Who has Dallas beaten that is of substance this season? The team’s lone wins against .500 or better teams are against the Seahawks and Rams. I’m not buying the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -900
Derrick Henry is banged up and the Titans blew a lead to the Colts last week to lose in overtime.
Now, they have to compete with the No. 1 offense in the NFL?
I’m sorry, but that’s too tall of a task for Will Levis this week.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Packers -290
Green Bay has won three straight games, including wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.
Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants are not the team that’s going to stop this winning streak. Jordan Love has been elite the last three weeks, throwing eight scores and no picks.
He should tear up a Giants defense that ranks 28th in yards per play and 26th in points allowed this season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.