Hallelujah! After weeks of "win a little, lose a little", we finally had the big week we've been long overdue for, going 9-4 (+4.19 units) which brings our season-to-date record to 103-88-2 (+9.17 units).
Let's keep the momentum as we enter the final stretch of the season, including Week 14 which will serve as the final week with BYEs with both the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals receiving some much-needed rest.
If you're new here, I place a bet on a side or total for all 272 NFL regular season games. If you want to know the rules for the Road to 272 bets, you can find them in the Week 1 edition of this article. Also, you can look back at my full record so far this season over at Betstamp.
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NFL Week 14 Best Bets for Every Game
Patriots vs. Steelers prediction
There have been a lot of ugly games this NFL season, but this one might be the ugliest. The Patriots offense has scored an average of 4.3 points per game over their last three weeks and they're averaging a measly 12.3 points per game this season.
Meanwhile, the Steelers offense was already stagnant but now with Kenny Pickett having suffered an ankle injury, they look to Mitch Trubisky to start for them on Thursday night. As a result, the total for the game is the lowest of the season, sitting at 30 at some places.
As for me, I'll take the 6.5-points with the Patriots. I have a general strategy that when two garbage teams play, I'll take the one that's getting points, especially when we're getting this many.
I know the Steelers are currently a playoff team but this is a squad that's 23rd in Net yards per Play and 24th in EPA per Play. I might have laid six points on them if Pickett was healthy, but with Trubisky under center, no way.
Yes, the Patriots offense is abysmal, but let's give their defense a ton of credit. They're sixth in opponent yards per play and they've allowed their last three opponents to just 8.7 points per game.
New England covered this same spread without scoring a single point against the Chargers. I'll back the Patriots to cover once again, but hopefully they can score at least a few points to make the bet a little less sweaty.
Pick: Patriots +6.5 (-110)
Rams vs. Ravens prediction
I've been high on the Rams quite a bit this season but I think this spread against the Ravens indicates it's time to sell high on them a bit after winning three-straight games since their BYE week.
I know the Rams were able to throw the ball successfully against the Browns' defense, but I have doubts they can have a repeat performance against the Ravens. Baltimore allows the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL at just 4.6 yards per throw, which is 0.9 fewer yards per throw than the next-best team. They're also second in dropback EPA and third in dropback success rate.
Unlike the Browns, the Ravens actually have an offense that should be able to move the ball successfully against this Rams defense that is middling at best in virtually every statistic.
A lot of the Rams' success this season comes from their high red zone touchdown rate, scoring on 62.86% of their red zone trips. They may not be able to find the same level of success against a Ravens defense that's third in opponent red zone touchdown rate, keeping teams out of the end zone on 37.50% of their red zone trips.
I'll lay the touchdown with Baltimore.
Pick: Ravens -7 (-110)
Lions vs. Bears prediction
I was on the Bears to beat the Lions outright a few weeks ago when these two teams played in Detroit, but this time around I'm flipping sides and laying 3.5-points on the Lions.
Despite the Bears being moments away from one of the biggest upsets of the season, the Lions were largely the better team in the game. They out-gained the Bears 5.7 yards per play to 4.7 yards per play, and largely were on the verge of losing due to a -3 turnover differential.
If the Bears can't find a way to force four turnovers again like they did in their first meeting, the Lions may be able to find a way to runaway with the win. I hesitate to lay a ton of points on the Lions, but I don't mind doing so when the spread if only a touch over a field goal.
Pick: Lions -3.5 (+102)
Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction
It would be just like the Falcons to string together two wins, be firmly atop the division, and then lose at home to a 5-7 Buccaneers team. Atlanta suffered some rough injuries last week against the Jets, with the likes of Kaleb McGary, Nate Landman, and A.J. Terrell listed as questionable. If Terrell can't go, I have major concerns about what the Bucs' receiving core may be able to do against the Falcons' secondary.
The Falcons have made it clear that they're now a run-first team, running the ball on 60.73% of plays over their last three games, the highest mark in the league by over 7%. Now, they need to face a Bucs' defense that ranks 10th in opponent yards per carry (3.9) and fourth in opponent EPA per rush. If the Falcons have to turn to Desmond Ridder's arm to win the game, they could be in trouble.
I'll tale Tampa Bay as my upset pick of the week.
Pick: Buccaneers +116
Colts vs. Bengals prediction
I don't care how good Jake Browning looked against the Jaguars on Monday night. He'll have to put on another similar performance in Week 14 if the Bengals want to hang with the Colts. As I continue to say on a weekly basis, not enough people are talking about just how bad this Bengals' defense is.
They rank near the bottom of the NFL in virtually every single statistic, including dead last in opponent yards per play.
The Colts have been hot lately, ranking 11th in Net Yards per Play (+0.3) over each team's last three games. Unless Jake Browning has another A+ performance, Cincinnati's defense is going to cost it another win. I'll lay the points with the Colts.
Pick: Colts -1 (-110)
Panthers vs. Saints prediction
It's tough to convince yourself to lay points on this Saints team, but the Panthers offense is so bad that I have no choice to do so this week. The Panthers are dead last in the NFL in yards per play (4.1), while also ranking 29th in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate.
Against a middling defense like the Bucs' last week, I was willing to take the points. This time, they have to play a defense that has beat up on bad offenses all season.
It will also be interesting to see how the Saints' offense looks if Jameis Winston ends up getting the nod at quarterback after Derek Carr suffered his second concussion of the season.
I'll lay the points on New Orleans.
Pick: Saints -5.5 (-110)
Jaguars vs. Browns prediction
I was as surprised as anyone by the play of Joe Flacco for the Browns last week, but when you take a step back, it wasn't as impressive as it was in the moment. He completed just 23-of-44 passes against the Rams, for a QBR of 51.8 and a quarterback rating of 75.4. That's a below-average game at best, so let's not get too hyped up by this performance by the 38-year-old.
Now, there's the matter of the Jaguars offense, who will now be led by C.J. Beathard. This wasn't an extremely impressive offense to begin with, ranking around middle of the NFL in most metrics, but now with Beathard under center, they might just turn into a terrible unit.
I think the only thing we can do is bet the UNDER, no matter how low the total is. Defense should reign supreme for both teams.
Pick: UNDER 36.5
Texans vs. Jets prediction
I have to question your sanity of you're betting on the Jets when they're set as anything less than a double-digit underdog. Sure, their defense is dominant, but their offense is atrocious.
You know things are bad when Tim Boyle gets benched for Trevor Siemian. They're dead last in the league in both EPA/Play and Success Rate, and it's not even close. No quarterback, no offensive line, and a receiving core that leaves a lot to be desired.
Meanwhile, the Texans have the rookie of the year at quarterback and a defense that should be able to get enough done to hold this terrible Jets' offense in check.
It'll likely be another low-scoring affair, but I want no part in betting on the Jets.
Pick: Texans -6.5 (-110)
Seahawks vs. 49ers prediction
Few people are as high on the 49ers as I am, but that doesn't mean I'm going to blindly back them on a weekly basis. Double-digit spreads in the NFL should be reserved for great teams playing terrible teams and while the 49ers certainly are the former, the Seahawks certainly aren't the latter.
We saw the Seahawks take the Cowboys down to the wire last week, and now they're coming off a mini-BYE week against a divisional opponent. They're 12th in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.2) and 13th in EPA per Play. That doesn't sound like a team that should be a double-digit underdog to anyone.
Let's do our best to not overreact to the 49ers 31-13 win over the Seahawks on Thanksgiving. This is a brand new game and we could see a very different result.
Pick: Seahawks +10.5 (-110)
Vikings vs. Raiders prediction
I truly don't know what to do with this game and if there was one game I could not bet on this week, it's be this one. Unfortunately, it's the "Road to 272 Bets" now the "Road to 271 Bets" so I'll be betting on this game regardless and I've opted to go with the OVER.
The Vegas defense has had a lot of issues this season, ranking 22nd in opponent yards per play and 27th in EPA per Play. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense has been a lot better than people expected but with Jordan Hicks now on the IR, I expect some regression from this unit.
UNDERs have hit at an extremely high rate this season and as a result, I believe the market has over-corrected itself. I think we're going to see some regression and see OVERs hit at a higher than 50% rate in the final few weeks, so there are a few spots, including this one, where the OVER could be the bet to make.
Pick: OVER 40.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
I may just continue to lose bets on the Bills in the most heartbreaking fashion on a weekly basis, but I just can't ignore the stats and the metrics show us the Bills are an elite team, despite their completely average record.
The Bills are fifth in Net Yards per Play (+0.6) and fourth in EPA per Play, outranking the Chiefs in both areas. The Chiefs' defense has been better than the Bills' defense this season, but they can be had on the ground. They rank 31st in opponent rush EPA and 28th in opponent yards per carry.
Buffalo has ran the ball well this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, good for seventh in the NFL, and with Josh Allen coming off a week of rest we may see him take off with his legs more often than he has in recent weeks.
I'll take the Bills and the points in this classic AFC showdown.
Pick: Bills +2.5 (-105)
Broncos vs. Chargers prediction
This is another game that I think is worth taking a shot on the OVER. Analytically, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL and aren't nearly good enough to warrant a total in the low 40s.
The're 28th and 31st in opponent yards per play, 26th and 30th in opponent EPA per Play, 29th and 30th in opponent success rate, and 20th and 29th in opponent points per game. Without even considering the two offenses, the defenses alone make this OVER bet worth it.
Don't be fooled by the Chargers' game last week that was a 6-0 defense. This is a completely different matchup and I expect it to result in a high-scoring affair.
Pick: OVER 43 (-108)
Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction
A lot of people are going to be surprised that the Eagles are once again set as underdogs, but not me. I've been harping about how fraudulent the Eagles have been the past few weeks and it finally showed up in a 42-19 demolition at the hands of the 49ers. But, the Cowboys also suffered a big loss to the 49ers, so why do I like them to win and cover in this matchup?
In my opinion, this game comes down to defense, which is the reason why the Eagles' aren't as good as their record indicates, in my opinion. Philadelphia ranks 24th in opponent yards per play (5.4), 27th in opponent EPA per Play, and 20th in opponent success rate. The most damning part of their defense has been their third down performance. They're dead last in the NFL opponent third down conversion rate, allowing teams to convert 47.27% of third downs against them.
Despite beating the Cowboys earlier in the Season, Dallas out-gained them 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play. Now, with the rematch set to take place on the Cowboys' home turf, I think they're the right side to bet in this NFC East showdown.
Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (+100)
Packers vs. Giants prediction
I've been trying to tell people the past few weeks, this Packers team is legitimately good and may be the most improved squad compared to September. They're now 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at (+0.2) and this week, they'll play the Giants who are dead last in that stat at -1.6.
Don't be fooled by the Giants' two latest wins against the Commanders and Patriots, this team is atrocious. They're second last in both EPA per Play and Success rate while also coming in at 20th in opponent EPA per Play and 28th in opponent success rate.
All signs point to the Packers running away with this one.
Pick: Packers -6.5 (-105)
Titans vs. Dolphins prediction
The Titans are bad, don't get me wrong, but I don't think they're 14-point underdogs level of bad. Yes, the Dolphins rank better than them in almost every single metric you want to look at, but there's one key area that makes me want to take the points with Tennessee.
The Titans are 15th in opponent third down conversion rate and second in opponent red zone scoring percentage. To cover a two touchdown spread, you need to score touchdowns when you get to the red zone and keep your offense on the field as much as possible. The Titans do a great job of preventing both those things from happening.
I have no doubt the Dolphins will win this game, but 14 points is a bit too step for me to put money on them to cover the spread. Give me Tennessee +14.
Pick: Titans +14 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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