NFL Week 10 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Back Vikings Before Josh Allen Injury Status Gets Worse)

We're still several days away from Week 10 kicking off on Thursday night, and we've already seen several spreads and totals move almost immediately off their re-posted numbers from Sunday evening.

In Chicago, Vegas has started to pay close attention to the Bears' resurgent offense, hitting the over in three straight games, as well as shattering their team totals. As a result, the opening line of 46.5 on the Windy City's lakefront is now all the way up to 48.5 when the Bears host the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

In Buffalo, the Bills opened as a 7.5-point favorite against the Minnesota Vikings with the total at 48.5. Now, with concerns that Josh Allen could miss the game for Buffalo with an UCL injury in his throwing elbow, both the spread number for the Bills, as well as the over/under has dropped significantly.

Those aren't the only two with significant line movements already, so before you consider making your bets for early in the week, check out our NFL Opening Odds report that tracks every game. That way, you can see where the initial lines first began, and follow where they currently sit on the market.

Here are three plays on this week's slate that I'd consider taking sooner rather than later before the lines move, or continue to drift further from the original opening number.

NFL Week 10 Odds, Spreads and Totals to Bet Right Now

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 44.5 (-105) - PointsBet Sportsbook

The 6-3 Seahawks continue to be the best feel-good story of the NFL season through the first half, but the Bucs' defense is set up awfully well to stop the type of game plan Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron want to create.

The Bucs found their defensive identity last week at home against the L.A. Rams, allowing just 3.7 yards per play in their comeback victory. They still remain an elite unit against the run despite the recent numbers showing otherwise, but gave up just 2.8 yards per attempt last week on the ground.

Meanwhile, over their last three games, Seattle's defense ranks first in the league in opponent yards per play, while Tampa over their last three are second-worst in the NFL in points per play. Over their last four games, the Seahawks have allowed just 16.5 points per game, compared to Tampa who averages just 18.

While several of the London games have trended over of late, I'll back the recent prowess of these two defenses to hold the fort in Germany.

Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (-110) at Buffalo Bills - WynnBET Sportsbook

As soon as the Josh Allen elbow injury status was announced, I immediately jumped to grab the under at 48.5 while it was still available. Since Monday, the line has moved anywhere from 45-46.5, so there's no real value on it at least at this point until we know more.

Interestingly enough, while the line has moved down from 7.5 down to 6/6.5, where the biggest movement has taken place is in the MVP market, where Allen has gone from consensus favorite to being passed on the board.

Even if Allen plays, he's nowhere near 100%, and the Bills can't take much pressure off Allen with a steady run game.

He leads the team in rushing with 392 yards this year, following by Devin Singletary (79 rushes for 347 yards), Zack Moss (17 for 91), and Isaiah McKenzie (4 for 17). The addition of Nyheim Hines could help, but they acquired him for his pass catching versatility, rather than going between the tackles. Case Keenum is a very solid backup, but as I discussed with FanSided's Stacking the Box's Matt Verderame and Sterling Holmes, the whole identity of the offense goes through Allen, so even a switch to a quality No. 2 still makes things drastically different.

Before the injury was announced, I teased Buffalo from -7.5 down to -1.5 with the Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5 to +8.5). Hopefully I can middle my two bets together, but with a +6.5 still left on the board for Minnesota, I'm going to take it before it drops down to six and maybe much lower.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 42.5 (-110) - FanDuel Sportsbook

Leave it to Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay to turn a forgettable season into an unforgettable one for all the wrong reasons.

Head coach Frank Reich was let go on Monday with a 41-35-1 record through five seasons, and replaced with Jeff Saturday, a Colts legend and Super Bowl champion, but also enters with zero NFL or college coaching experience.

As a direct result, the Vegas odds have jumped from Raiders -4.5 to -6.5, but the total has stayed near 42.5.

That number won't last.

Not only have the Colts been the best UNDER team in the NFL this season at 8-1, they currently don't have any coaches on the staff with playcalling experience to replace Reich. Instead, as NFL Network Tom Pelissero reports below, pass game specialist and assistant QB coach Parks Frazier will make his season debut as the playcaller on offense in Week 10. The Raiders have a below-average defense, but if Indy had the league's worst offense before, I'd be stunned if a first-time playcaller all of a sudden brings the Colts out of the duldrums.

I see this number going down to at least 41/41.5, and I've also taken the Colts team total at under 17.5 as well.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.