NFL Week 11 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Don't Overreact to Cowboys Loss, Vikings Win in Week 10)

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Tony Pollard should be a major part of the game plan vs. the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Tony Pollard should be a major part of the game plan vs. the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11. / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

We're still several days out from the first kickoff of Week 11 in the NFL, and several high profile matchups have already taken sizable moves from where the betting lines first opened.

Take a look at just these four games whose totals have already taken a major move in the betting market.

In the interest of full transparency, I've already taken the UNDER 44.5 (-130) on Cleveland and Buffalo, and with the line currently at 43, I didn't feel like the value still holds. However, don't be surprised that if snow continues to show up in the forecast, that the line will continue to plummet throughout the week. I just preferred to get it on the other side of 44.

With so many NFL final results causing havoc all season, it's important to find any sort of closing line value, or CLV that you can. For example, in last Sunday's 22-16 victory for the San Francisco 49ers over the L.A. Chargers, the line first opened midway through Week 10 at 49ers -4. Throughout the week, it continued to move towards the 49ers all the way up to -8.5.

As a result, the early 49ers bettors cashed as long as they had the number at -4, -4.5, -5, and -5.5. Anything past 6 or higher was a push or loss as the Chargers covered the closing number despite the loss.

Ahead of placing your bets for this week, be sure to check out our Week 11 NFL Opening Odds report, as we provide where the lines, spreads and over/unders all first opened on Sunday evening, and track them throughout the week.

Here are three games on the Week 11 NFL schedule I've already locked in before the line either moves, or continues to move.

NFL Week 11 Games to Bet Right Now

  • Cowboys -1 (-110) at Vikings
  • Chiefs-Chargers - OVER 49.5 (-110)
  • Cardinals +9 (-107) vs. 49ers

Cowboys vs. Vikings Odds, Prediction and Pick

Imagine if the Cowboys and Vikings' roles were reversed from last week, would Minnesota be this short of a favorite at home?

The Cowboys blew a double digit lead to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on the road, eventually falling in overtime. Meanwhile, the Vikings overcame a two touchdown deficit to stun the Bills on the road in overtime, highlighted by arguably the greatest catch ever made in a regular season game by Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson.

Kirk Cousins, despite outstanding numbers at home, has historically struggled in late afternoon games at 7-14 in his career, and could be in serious trouble vs. a Cowboys pass rush that ranks amongst the best in the league.

Dallas should also move the ball with ease vs. Minnesota's defense that ranks 28th in yards per play, and second-to-last in opponent red zone scoring percentage.

PICK: Cowboys -1 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Prediction and Pick

The Chiefs finally covered the spread at home last week, and as they head to Los Angeles for a Sunday Night Football tilt against the Chargers, despite being on the road, expect SoFi Stadium to play to showcase plenty of red in the stands.

Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now, leading the entire league in passing yards and touchdowns while on pace to break Peyton Manning's single-season passing yards record of 5,477.

As a result, the former 2018 NFL MVP is back as the consensus favorite across sportsbooks entering Week 11.

So can the Chargers keep up? Vegas seems to think so. L.A. has won two of their last four games vs. Kansas City, scoring no less than 24 points in all four games, and the total going no lower than 51.

At 49.5 with multiple books already moving the line up, I'm grabbing that now before it goes to either 50 or 51.

PICK: OVER 49.5 (-110)

49ers vs. Cardinals Odds, Prediction and Pick

The Cardinals may not have Kyler Murray or even backup Colt McCoy this week at home, but 9-points vs. a flawed 49ers team is too many especially in a divisional game at home.

As I wrote about earlier in my betting preview for this matchup, this is a dream spot for Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals head coach is the only NFL coach to have a winning record as a straight up underdog, but a losing record as a favorite. Via ESPN Stats and Info, Kingsbury is 17-16-1 outright when the other team is favored, and 11-14 straight up when his team is favored.

Kyle Shanahan, on the other side of the coin has been brutal as a favorite, going just 19-28-1 vs. the spread since his stint began in San Francisco. Kingsbury against the spread (ATS) is 22-11-2.

Arizona has also handled San Francisco effectively vs. the spread over the last four years, going 7-1-1 in their last nine head-to-head matchups. The 49ers are the superior team, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking they're worth almost 10 points on the road.

PICK: Cardinals +9 (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.