NFL Week 11 Upset Picks (Chargers Stun Chiefs, Jets, Bears Among Top Predictions)

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re not tailing the BetSided team’s NFL upset picks this season, you’re missing out on some major cash, especially after the team went 4-1 with our picks in Week 10! 

That brings our season record to 23-25 (+12.4 units), after the Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts all won in Week 10. 

Our team is back with more picks for Week 11, including an interesting AFC West upset on Sunday Night Football: 

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 11 of 2022 Season

Las Vegas Raiders (+130) vs. Denver Broncos

Both of these teams stink, finding any way possible to lose each and every week. 

However, the Raiders did find a way to beat this Denver team early in the season, using Josh Jacobs to run all over Denver’s defense. 

That’s the one spot where you can expose this Denver defense, and the Broncos have struggled mightily week after week on offense. With Jerry Jeudy dealing with an ankle injury and the Raiders already beating Denver this season, I’ll back the underdog in the battle between two hapless first-year head coaches. – Peter Dewey

Los Angeles Chargers (+240) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Los Angeles Chargers have stayed tough with the Kansas City Chiefs plenty of times over the past two years in the Brandon Staley era and I believe they are live to shock the AFC-leading club at home on Sunday Night Football. Injuries are a big concern for this Chargers group, they lost another pass rusher last week in Otito Ogbonnia, but may get Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back from injuries.

The Chiefs inability to run the ball this season is going to hurt them in this one as the Chargers are a much better pass defense unit -- top half of the league in EPA/Pass while 31st against the run -- and I can see this game being one where the last team with the ball wins. I'll take a shot on LAC in primetime. – Reed Wallach

New York Jets (+145) at New England Patriots

This is going to sound like a hot take, but I think the Jets are a better football team than the Patriots.

I know the Patriots already beat them earlier this year, but the Jets gained 6.7 yards per play that game compared to 3.8 for the Patriots. If it wasn't for Zach Wilson throwing three interceptions, it was an extremely winnable game for New York.

Let's also talk about how dominant the Jets defense has been this season. They rank fourth in the NFL in opponent yards per play and third in opponent yards per pass attempt. I have no faith in Mac Jones against this Jets defense, so I'll back New York to win this game outright. – Iain MacMillan

Chicago Bears (+140) at Atlanta Falcons

The Chciago Bears flat-out blew an easy victory at home to the Detroit Lions last week, giving up a two-touchdown lead in the 4th quarter threw a plethora of mistakes and poor calls.

Now, Chicago heads to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that couldn't hold off the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 10, and is still somehow a 3-point underdog despite Justin Fields setting new records every week at the quarterback position.

The Bears' defense is a mess, and the Falcons should have no issues running all over them, but are we trusting Atlanta's defense to slow down Fields and the Bears' newfound offensive success? Not a chance. Atlanta ranks 31st in opponent yards/play, 29th on opponent 3rd down conversions, and 28th in opponent rushing touchdowns/game.

The Bears' arrow is pointed up, and even with two tough losses at home to Miami and Detroit, they'll handle their business with the superior quarterback in Atlanta. – Ben Heisler

Tennessee Titans (+143) at Green Bay Packers

I'm turning to Thursday Night Football for my upset pick this week, as I think the Tennessee Titans are a much better football team than the Green Bay Packers.

Derrick Henry has a ridiculous 731 rushing yards over his last six games and should feast on a Packers defense that ranks 28th in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.8). Green Bay surrenders 5.5 yards per rush at home, so Henry could be in for a huge day.

Over the last three weeks, the Titans are fourth in the NFL in opponent yards per play (4.5). They've been spectacular and allow the third-fewest yards per rush attempt (3.9) on the season. Thus, I don't see the Packers' recent "Run the Ball" strategy providing much success.

Betting trends support a Titans bet too. Tennessee is 10-5 outright in its last 15 games as an underdog, including covering the spread in three straight. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost four straight games as favorites and haven't covered in five straight.

Back the Titans as Henry explodes while the defense smothers Aaron Rodgers. – Joe Summers

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.