NFL Week 10 Upset Picks (Colts Shock the World, Seahawks, Steelers Among Top Predictions)

 Indianapolis Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger (4).
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger (4). / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 NFL season has been full of surprises, and upsets, with so many expected contenders like the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams, struggling in the first half of the season. 

The BetSided team shares its upset picks every week, and a 2-2 performance in Week 9 moves our season record to 19-24 (+7.06 units). 

There are several big favorites on the slate for Week 10, but is there an underdog you should pick to win outright? We have a few in mind in this week’s picks: 

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 10 of 2022 Season

Minnesota Vikings (+154) at Buffalo Bills

I’m not sold that Josh Allen will play in this game for the Buffalo Bills, and that would completely derail this offense as he’s been the team’s top rushing option as well this season. 

Sure, the Minnesota Vikings have won a bunch of close games, many in ugly fashion, but they keep doing it. If the Bills are without Allen, Case Keenum is going to need to put up points against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the eighth fewest points in the league this season. 

I’ll take a chance on Kirk Cousins and company to pull off this win. – Peter Dewey

Pittsburgh Steelers (+125) vs. New Orleans Saints

Consider me officially off the New Orleans Saints bandwagon.

I picked New Orleans to come through at home on Monday night with what appeared to be a recent revitalization on both sides of the ball. Instead, as J.J. Watt once famously coined in a postgame interview, the "Red Rifle looked like a red rider BB gun."

Now the Saints, with their head tucked between their tails off a blowout home loss to the Baltimore Ravens head to Pittsburgh where the Steelers come off their bye. The numbers for Mike Tomlin have always been spectacular as a home dog (14-2-1), and is 13-4 straight up in these spots.

If T.J. Watt returns, expect more of the same from a broken Saints offense we saw back in Week 9. – Ben Heisler

Seattle Seahawks (+130) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Enough is enough, it's time for us to stop setting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as favorites against actual good teams. That's a weird sentence to write considering our preseason outlooks on the Seattle Seahawks and Bucs, but numbers don't lie. 

Seattle's record is no fluke. Heading into Week 10, the Seahawks rank 10th in the NFL in net yards per play and the Buccaneers rank 17th. Not only that, but the Seattle defense has been on fire lately. 

Over each team's last three games, the Seahawks lead in the NFL in opponent yards per play. With that being said, teams can attack this Seahawks defense on the ground, as they rank 25th in opponent yards per carry, but the Buccaneers have the worst rushing attack in the NFL, so that's not going to be an option for them.

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Take the Seahawks to down the Buccaneers in Germany on Sunday morning. – Iain MacMillan

Indianapolis Colts (+205) at Las Vegas Raiders

No way Jeff Saturday and a rag tag group of individuals who have never called plays can lead the Indianapolis Colts to a win, right? Why not, they are playing the Las Vegas Raiders, who are now 2-6 and are quickly falling out of relevancy this season. 

Indianapolis is top 10 in EPA/Play on defense this season while the Raiders check in at 31st in the same category. While the Colts offense is one of the worst in football with a banged up Jonathan Taylor flanking an outmatched Sam Ehlinger, the Raiders defense is far easier than the Patriots, who they faced last week. Let's get nuts, and go as crazy as Jim Irsay did when he hired the ESPN analyst to be the interim head coach. – Reed Wallach

So what the Colts fired Frank Reich this week and hired a coach with no experience? They are playing the Las Vegas Raiders, who have invented ways to lose games this season. I think we’re all overreacting to the news, which has made the Colts the best value on the board this week.

Jonathan Taylor should be back this week, giving the Colts a huge boost on offense. Sam Ehlinger, when he’s had protection, has looked decent. The Raiders are dead last in sack percentage, so I expect Ehlinger to be upright this week. The Colts’ defense is good enough to keep them in the game, especially against a losing team like Las Vegas. – Donnavan Smoot

Arizona Cardinals (+150) at Los Angeles Rams

Look, the Rams are a complete trainwreck. Both teams are bad, but if you just considered the actual profiles of these teams instead of their names, you'd make Arizona a favorite.

Los Angeles has the league's worst offense, averaging just 4.7 yards per play. Things have been even worse over the last three weeks, as the Rams averaged a pathetic 4.5 yards per play in that stretch.

The defense struggles at home, surrendering 5.6 yards per play to opponents. That's a bottom-11 mark in the league, and I think this is the week Arizona snaps its three-game losing streak against its division rival.

In the Cardinals' last nine games as road underdogs, they're 8-1 outright. Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games overall and just 1-4 ATS in their last five as home favorites.

Expect Los Angeles' tumble to the bottom of the standings to continue as Arizona picks up another road win. – Joe Summers

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.