NFL Week 9 Upset Picks (Geno Smith Shines Again, Saints, Jaguars Among Top Predictions)

Another week, another round of upset picks to make in the NFL, courtesy of the BetSided team. 

We’re coming off a 1-2 week, with the Washington Commanders coming through against the Indianapolis Colts to move our season record to 17-22 (+6.88 units). 

We have four different games for Week 9 if you’re looking to get some favorable odds on an outright winner: 

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 9 of 2022 Season

Seattle Seahawks (+110) vs. Arizona Cardinals

There wasn’t a better opening line on the board than the Seattle Seahawks getting three points against Kliff Kingbury's Arizona Cardinals squad in Week 9.

Seattle has been terrific against the spread this season, and Geno Smith has rejuvenated a team that looks like it completely couldn't stand Russell Wilson. Seattle already beat Arizona 19-9 at home this season, and Kingsbury's Cardinals have not been great at home, especially as favorites with him as the team's head coach.

Since 2019, Arizona is just 5-11 ATS as a home favorite, and I wouldn't be shocked if it loses this game outright. – Peter Dewey

New Orleans Saints (+120) vs. Baltimore Ravens

At the beginning of the season, I predicted it would be the New Orleans Saints at +300 to win the NFC South over the heavily favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It's taken nearly nine weeks, but we're finally starting to see why the Saints might actually be able to pull it off, along with a continued collapse by Tampa Bay.

Andy Dalton has stabilized the Saints' offense, and a key reason for their success has been his ability to find Alvin Kamara as a dynamic receiving threat.

The defense, which came in with top 5 expectations finally delivered in Week 8, shutting out a Las Vegas Raiders offense featuring Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.

Slowing down Lamar Jackson is problematic, but even adding in stud linebacker Roquan Smith won't solve the Ravens' defensive woes right away. Baltimore ranks 20th out of 32 teams in points per game allowed, and 21st in yards per play allowed.

The Saints are playing their best football of the season, and I expect it to carry over in primetime on Monday Night Football vs. a good, but flawed Ravens team. -- Ben Heisler

Jacksonville Jaguars (+108) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

It's not the biggest underdog in the world, but I think it's the one that holds the most value in Week 9 of the NFL. 

Both the Jaguars and Raiders offenses are comparable, but the Jacksonville defense is head and shoulders above the Las Vegas defense. The Raiders rank 24th in opponent yards per play, 27th in opponent yards per pass attempt, 30th in opponent completion percentage, 32nd in sack percentage, 29th in third down defense and 31st in red zone defense. 

Would you like me to continue to list stats? 

The point is, the Raiders defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL, while Jacksonville's defense ranks in the top half of the NFL in virtually every statistic. The Jaguars have had a rough start to their season, but the numbers are there to indicate some positive regression from them. I think they should be favored at home in this matchup, so I'll gladly take them to win outright as underdogs. – Iain MacMillan

I still believe in this Jacksonville team, far more than this miserable Raiders bunch that just got shutout by the Saints.

The Jaguars are 11th in yards per play (5.7) and 12th in opponent yards per play (5.4), while Las Vegas is 12th (5.6) and 24th (5.8). Offense is supposed to be Vegas' calling card, but again, the team just hung a goose egg on a poor defense.

Red zone issues have plagued Jacksonville, but the Raiders' leaky defense is the perfect opponent to cure those woes.

The Raiders are a pathetic 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games as a favorite, losing five of their last eight outright. I expect that trend to continue as the Jaguars pick up the home victory. – Joe Summers

Washington Commanders (+150) vs. Minnesota Vikings

I faded the Vikings last week, as I continue to contend their record is fraudulent. Minnesota is 17th in yards per play, 15th in yards per game and 28th in opponent yards per play. The Vikings – at least when it comes to moving the ball – are average on offense and one of the worst teams in the league at stopping teams.

We finally saw the New York Giants fall last week, and I’m hoping the same happens to Minnesota. – Donnavan Smoot

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.