NFL Picks

NFL Week 12 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Grab Total Fast in Patriots-Vikings Before it Drops)

Ben Heisler
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) shares a peace sign with the home crowd in their victory over the Chicago Bears.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) shares a peace sign with the home crowd in their victory over the Chicago Bears. / Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
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The Week 12 slate of NFL action gets underway Thursday with a full day's slate of three games on Thanksgiving, followed by another 13 matchups Sunday-Monday night.

Each Sunday, sportsbooks release their updated odds for the upcoming week, but many casual bettors don't typically wager until closer to gametime; missing out on perhaps the most value on the board. Sometimes, it works out, as injuries and news occurs to move the line in a more favorable direction. Other times, handicapping a matchup when the odds first are announced can offer the most value available.

Here are three games I've already wagered on early for Week 12 that I expect to see the lines move away from the original number throughout the week. You can find every team's original betting lines, as well as where they all currently stand HERE:

Note that bets made previously may not completely reflect the latest available betting lines:

NFL Week 12 Games to Bet Right Now

  • Patriots-Vikings UNDER 42.5
  • Ravens -3.5 at Jaguars
  • Bucs -3 at Browns

Patriots vs. Vikings Odds, Prediction and Pick

Apparently Bill Belichick's team took their blowout home loss to the Chicago Bears personally. Since the 33-14 beatdown on Oct. 24, the Patriots are allowing less than 8 points per game over roughly the last month.

After seeing how the Dallas Cowboys completely shut down the Minnesota Vikings last week, New England will send plenty of pressure in Kirk Cousins' direction, while also finding ways to contain Justin Jefferson for the second consecutive week. The narrative of Bill Belichick taking away your team's best weapon hold true, but the VIkings still have Dalvin Cook, and even if he plays well, that will churn the clock for Minnesota.

The Thanks Thanksgiving evening under trend has also been very profitable. Via Evan Abrams of TAN, unders are17-8 in the last 25 games on Thursday Night Football, whileThanksgiving evening is 11-4 to the under, hitting in seven straight seasons.

I could see this moving all the way down to 41.5, maybe even 41 by game time.

Ravens vs. Jaguars Odds, Prediction and Pick

I can't figure out why this Ravens team can't consistently cover at home the way they do on the road, but this has been an ongoing trend going all the way back to when John Harbaugh first started in Baltimore.

The Ravens are 0-4-1 ATS at home this year, but 4-1-0 ATS away from M&T Bank Stadium. They're also 3-1-0 ATS as a road favorite, and no team has more ATS wins on the road since 2008 than Baltimore, going 71-58-8; covering at over 58%.

Jacksonville is in big trouble, given their inability to generate pressure on the quarterback, ranking 3rd-worst in sack percentage this year.

Several books have already moved this to -4, and I'd still bet it there. 4.5 I don't hate, but certainly don't love it as much.

Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds, Prediction and Pick

The Buccaneers entered the season expected to be amongst the best run defenses in the NFL. In the early going, they held up their end of the bargain, but injuries and some brutal performances put them in a rough spot for the bulk of the year.

Now, they're back to where they were expected to land, ranking in the top five in several defensive categories, including scoring defense, total defense, and sack percentage.

Credit the Browns for making it a one possession game vs. the Bills last week, but the game was on a neutral-site field in Detroit and Cleveland only mustered 80 total rushing yards in the loss.

With Tampa also ranking top five in pass defense in addition to their newfound rushing success, I don't see the Browns doing much offensively to hang around with the Bucs, especially as they continue to get healthy.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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