NFL Week 12 Upset Picks (Buffalo Could Shock Eagles; AFC North Team in This Week's Predictions)

Our editors share their favorite upset pick for Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and

BetSided's Iain MacMillan was just under four minutes away from cashing a +400 upset pick last week. And then the Chicago Bears happened.

Chicago blew a 12-point lead to the Detroit Lions, losing the game 31-26 and spurning Iain -- and everyone who tailed his pick -- of a huge win. That led to the BetSided team going 0-2 in last week's picks, as Peter Dewey's selection of the Cincinnati Bengals was doomed by the Joe Burrow injury.

With three games on Thanksgiving Day and another on Black Friday, is this the week that we bounce back?

2023 Upset Picks Record: 8-15 (-1.92 units)

Each week, the BetSided team is attempting to pick an upset in the NFL, and we have two more picks in this crazy Week 12.

If you’re looking to bet on any of these upset picks, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $150 in bonus bets (if your team wins).

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Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 12 of 2023 Season

Buffalo Bills (+160) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are facing off in a game between a team who has played much better than their record indicates in the Bills, and a team that has not played nearly as well as their record says in the Eagles.

So, I'm going to do what I always do and trust the numbers and bet on the Bills to win this game outright.

Buffalo ranks above the Eagles in Net Yards per Play, EPA per Play, and opponent EPA per Play. Put the records aside and as crazy as it may sound, the Bills have played better this season and if it wasn't for ill-timed turnovers and some bad luck, they'd be considered a top three team in the NFL.

I'll take the Bills to win outright. -- Iain MacMillan

Cleveland Browns (+114) at Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning four straight games, but I think this is a week to fade them.

Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking second in yards per play allowed and first in passing yards allowed this season. Cleveland is going to get to Russell Wilson, who has been sacked 12 times over his last three games.

Denver has relied on turnover luck to win recently, and eventually that's going to come back to bite the team in what should be a defensive slug fest. I'll gladly take the Browns to win a game like that, especially after Denver settled for five field goals in Week 11 against Minnesota.

The Broncos – even with their four-game winning streak – are just 1-4-1 against the spread as favorites this season. Go with Cleveland to move to 8-3. -- Peter Dewey

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.