BetSided's Iain MacMillan was just under four minutes away from cashing a +400 upset pick last week. And then the Chicago Bears happened.
Chicago blew a 12-point lead to the Detroit Lions, losing the game 31-26 and spurning Iain -- and everyone who tailed his pick -- of a huge win. That led to the BetSided team going 0-2 in last week's picks, as Peter Dewey's selection of the Cincinnati Bengals was doomed by the Joe Burrow injury.
With three games on Thanksgiving Day and another on Black Friday, is this the week that we bounce back?
2023 Upset Picks Record: 8-15 (-1.92 units)
Each week, the BetSided team is attempting to pick an upset in the NFL, and we have two more picks in this crazy Week 12.
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Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 12 of 2023 Season
Buffalo Bills (+160) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are facing off in a game between a team who has played much better than their record indicates in the Bills, and a team that has not played nearly as well as their record says in the Eagles.
So, I'm going to do what I always do and trust the numbers and bet on the Bills to win this game outright.
Buffalo ranks above the Eagles in Net Yards per Play, EPA per Play, and opponent EPA per Play. Put the records aside and as crazy as it may sound, the Bills have played better this season and if it wasn't for ill-timed turnovers and some bad luck, they'd be considered a top three team in the NFL.
I'll take the Bills to win outright. -- Iain MacMillan
Cleveland Browns (+114) at Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning four straight games, but I think this is a week to fade them.
Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking second in yards per play allowed and first in passing yards allowed this season. Cleveland is going to get to Russell Wilson, who has been sacked 12 times over his last three games.
Denver has relied on turnover luck to win recently, and eventually that's going to come back to bite the team in what should be a defensive slug fest. I'll gladly take the Browns to win a game like that, especially after Denver settled for five field goals in Week 11 against Minnesota.
The Broncos – even with their four-game winning streak – are just 1-4-1 against the spread as favorites this season. Go with Cleveland to move to 8-3. -- Peter Dewey
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.