NFL Week 12 Upset Picks (Sam Darnold’s Panthers, Jaguars Over Ravens Among Top Predictions)

Another week in the NFL, another perfect time to find an upset to bet!

The BetSided team has been hot in picking upsets this season, going 25-28 through the first 11 weeks (+12.13 units). Peter Dewey (Las Vegas Raiders) and Joe Summers (Tennessee Titans) hit with their picks in Week 11. 

There’s always a ton of parity in the NFL, and this year has been no different. With three games on Thanksgiving and full Sunday slate, let’s find some magic in an underdog this week: 

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 12 of 2022 Season

New England Patriots (+126) at Minnesota Vikings

I’m not sold on the Minnesota Vikings, who were dismantled by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, in this spot against Bill Belichick. 

Minnesota’s defense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and the New England Patriots are sixth in that same statistic. Minnesota struggled to move the ball against Dallas, and New England’s elite secondary is going to be another tough test. 

Yes, the Patriots have concerns of their own on offense, but on a short week against a bad defense, I think Belichick’s team can grab the win. – Peter Dewey

Carolina Panthers (+122) vs. Denver Broncos

Sportsbook managers always talk about the "Corner TV" where the gross NFL games of the week get turned on. After all, some degenerate will want to keep tabs of a game they've wagered on, while having little to no interest in actually watching it unfold.

For Week 12, the Broncos and Panthers matchup is that very game, with a total of 36 on the board between two of the worst teams in football. If it closes at 35, it will tie for the lowest over/under in the last 10 seasons.

The Broncos' defense remains an impressive unit, but they're due to start regressing soon. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson's red zone TD rate is the lowest in the entire NFL. Even if they get into scoring distance, their quarterback can't get them there.

Denver's also lost two of their top three running backs following the release of Melvin Gordon and the injury to Chase Edmonds. It wouldn't surprise me if they start going into full-on tank mode and sit Russell Wilson.

Both teams are a combined 16-5 to unders this year, which often benefits the underdog as well. While Carolina has their issues, they're not the Broncos, and that's worth backing them at home almost on its own merit. – Ben Heisler

Atlanta Falcons (+158) at Washington Commanders

The Washington Commanders have won five of their last six games, but I’m not buying it. The offense hasn’t looked extremely explosive and hasn’t looked great. Washington is 27th in yards per carry and 25th in yards per pass. I don’t think the Commanders’ offense will be able to keep up with Atlanta’s run first approach.

Even with an improved defense, I’ll fade Washington this week and back the Atlanta Falcons – who are coming off a big win against the Bears. – Donnavan Smoot

Jacksonville Jaguars (+175) vs. Baltimore Ravens 

Believe it or not, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has an advantage over the Baltimore Ravens defense in this game. At least from a stylistic point of view.

We all know the Ravens rely on running the football, but stopping the run is the strength of the Jaguars defense, ranking eighth in opponent yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rely on throwing the football, and that happens to be the weakness of the Baltimore defense, ranking 18th in opponent yards per pass attempt.

The two teams are both averaging 5.7 yards per play this season and 5.3 yards per play over their last three games. Jacksonville has a slight edge in the red zone, and Baltimore has a slight edge on third down.

This game is closer than you might think, so I'm going to take a shot on the Jaguars to win outright. – Iain MacMillan

Tennessee Titans (+110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

The Tennessee Titans are fantastic in this spot, winning each of their last four games as home underdogs. They've consistently excelled as 'dogs under Mike Vrabel, with wins in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs overall.

Derrick Henry and a stellar defense are the driving forces of Tennessee's recent success. Henry has over 1,000 yards rushing on the season and should continue to find running room against a Cincy defense that ranks 24th in opponent yards per carry on the road (4.7).

Meanwhile, the Titans are third in the NFL in opponent yards per rush attempt (3.9). Over the last three weeks, Tennessee is ninth in opponent yards per play (4.9). That'll give the home 'dogs an advantage, especially considering the Bengals just allowed 30 points to a woeful Pittsburgh offense.

The Bengals have played with fire, and I think the Titans defense will capitalize to propel Tennessee to another upset win. – Joe Summers