NFL Week 13 Upset Picks (Tua’s Dolphins Shock 49ers, Bears Finally Beat Aaron Rodgers?)
One of our favorite things to do at BetSided is pick upsets in the NFL, as we want our community and readers to have a chance to cash in on a plus-money bet each week.
The even better part? We’ve been pretty solid with our straight up upset picks this season, going 27-31 (+12.1 units) through the first 12 weeks.
Last week, the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars came through for the two wins from the team.
So, who are we riding with in Week 13? Here are the to upset picks from the BetSided editors:
Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 13 of 2022 Season
Miami Dolphins (+155) at San Francisco 49ers
This may be an aggressive pick, but the Miami Dolphins simply haven’t lost a game all season when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the contest.
As great as the San Francisco 49ers defense is, Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan both know each other's schemes, so this is going to come down to a talent matchup in my eyes.
The Dolphins have a better offense, especially at the quarterback position, and I’m not quite sold on the Niners being able to keep up after scoring just 13 points last week against the New Orleans Saints.
Kyle Shanahan has historically struggled as a favorite, so why not take a shot on the Dolphins to stay perfect with Tua in the lineup? – Peter Dewey
The 49ers are rolling, but these odds are too big for a team as talented as the Dolphins. Miami should have a big edge on offense, ranking third in the NFL in yards per play (6.3), and look much-improved defensively in recent weeks.
Over the last three weeks, the Dolphins are also third in opponent yards per play (4.6), just a tick behind San Francisco's stout defense (4.5 yards per play). With superior options in the passing game and a much better quarterback, Miami should be favored if the defensive improvements are legitimate.
Miami is 5-3 outright in its last eight games as road underdogs and has five straight wins overall. A team this good shouldn't be +155 underdogs to Jimmy friggin' Garoppolo. Back the Dolphins to pick up a sixth consecutive victory. – Joe Summers
Detroit Lions +110 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit came oh-so-close to an upset over the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving, but it's important to note how much better they've been over the last several weeks in total.
The Lions’ offense is back on track, scoring just under 30 points per game in their last three matchups vs. Chicago, New York (Giants), and Buffalo, and they've improved defensively as well, going from 0.43 points per play (29th) to 0.37 (17th) in their last three games.
Detroit has covered in four straight games, and via Evan Abrams of TAN, are 4-1 ATS on 10 or more days of rest over the last three seasons. They also have a long week at home to prepare for Jacksonville, who I believe is slightly overvalued after yet another blown Baltimore Ravens' fourth quarter lead.
In the battle of the cats, take the king of the jungle at home. – Ben Heisler
Chicago Bears (+158) vs. Green Bay Packers
This has to end at some point, right?
Aaron Rodgers has only lost four times to the Chicago Bears since 2009. That’s insane.
However, if Justin Fields comes back, I like the Bears to knock off the Green Bay Packers. Fields has reached a new level and will be able to make plays against a Packers team that just gave up 363 yards on the ground.
With Fields and Montgomery, Chicago will have an established gameplan and all the talent it needs. – Donnavan Smoot
New York Jets (+140) vs. Minnesota Vikings
According to my Net Yards per Play Report, the Minnesota Vikings are the biggest frauds in the NFL. Their defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL, and their poor play and luck in one score games will come back to haunt them this week.
Meanwhile, I'm all aboard the Jets train. They're eighth in net yards per play and their defense is a top three unit in the NFL. If Mike White can play anywhere close to how he played last week against the Bears, this Jets team could be dangerous down the stretch.
I'll take New York to beat Minnesota outright on Sunday. - Iain MacMillan
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.