NFL Week 2 Favorites to Fade - What Teams are Overvalued?

The Patriots are set as sizable favorites against the New York Jets in Week 2 of the NFL season.
The Patriots are set as sizable favorites against the New York Jets in Week 2 of the NFL season. / Bob Breidenbach/The Providence Journal

I LOVE a good underdog bet.

There’s nothing more square than loading up your betting card with favorites. If favorites won every game, then sports betting would be extremely easy and sports would be a lot less fun to watch.

Underdogs dominated in Week 1 of the NFL, going 9-7 straight up.

You can guarantee that there will be a few of them that will win in Week 2 as well, but the million dollar question is, which ones?

Let’s take a look at three betting favorites that you might want to consider fading in Week 2 of the NFL.

Steelers (-6) vs. Raiders

The Pittsburgh Steelers pulled off the biggest upset of Week 1, defeating the Buffalo Bills as 6.5-point underdogs. Now in Week 2, it’s Pittsburgh that’s set as the sizable favorite.

The Steelers are set to host the Las Vegas Raiders, who themselves pulled off the upset on Monday Night Football when they defeated the Ravens as 4.5-point underdogs.

While the Steelers win was an impressive one, their offense wasn’t exactly inspiring. They only recorded 259 yards, which was the fourth fewest among all teams in the opening week. Only the Jets, Titans, and Packers gained fewer offensive yards.

They also only scored 16 points on offense, as the Steelers game-winning touchdown came on a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown.

Expect regression from the Steelers in Week 2. The Raiders are available on the moneyline at +215.

Patriots (-6) vs. Jets

This may seem insane, but six is a lot of points for a team with a rookie quarterback hitting the road in Week 2 of the NFL season.

I know everyone wants to say “but it’s Bill Belichick!” which is true, but there’s 22 starters out there and Belichick is just one man. Also, the Jets had a pretty solid performance in Week 1 on the road against the Panthers. They only allowed 381 yards, which is tied with the Colts for the 14th fewest in the opening week.

The Patriots seem like an obvious bet, but usually when something seems obvious, it usually isn’t. If you want to get aggressive, you can bet on the Jets moneyline at +205.

Cardinals -3.5 vs Vikings

These two teams couldn’t have looked more on opposite ends of the spectrum in Week 1. The Arizona Cardinals dominated the Tennessee Titans 38-13, while the Minnesota Vikings lost to the lowly Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in overtime.

So why should we fade the Cardinals? Because the sharp bettors are.

Despite receiving 96.7% of the money on the Cardinals to cover the spread, the line has moved in the opposite direction from -4.5 to -3.5.

What does this mean? It means that professional bettors aka “sharp” bettors are on the Vikings, and sportsbooks are siding with them despite the public being on the opposite side.

If you believe the sharps know what they’re talking about, you may want to fade the Vikings. Minnesota is available at +165 on the moneyline.

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