Betsided

NHL Best Bets Today (Buffalo Sabres Are Due for Regression)

By Iain MacMillan

Oct 22, 2022; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch (89) and goalie
Oct 22, 2022; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch (89) and goalie / Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
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Another 2-1 night on Wednesday means we have had four-straight winning days of betting on the NHL, bringing my weekly record to 9-3 (+5.08 units).

This was the week I needed after a horrible start to the season. Even with the strong week, I'm still not quite yet profitable on the season. I'm sitting at 17-16 (-0.47 units). The good news is, one more winning night should bring me back into the black.

You can track my bets on Betstamp here, as well as right here on BetSided in each "Best Bets" article.

Without delaying anymore, let's dive into my top three NHL picks for Thursday, October 27th.

NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date:

  • 17-16 (-0.47 units)

NHL Best Bets for Today for October 27th

  • Canadiens +143 vs. Sabres
  • Panthers/Flyers UNDER 6.5 (+105)
  • Senators +105 vs. Wild

Canadiens +143 vs. Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres might be 4-2 on the season, but a lot of their success has been due to unsustainable play for their goaltenders, as well as a high shooting percentage. If you dig into some of their advanced analytics, you'll likely come to the conclusion that they're due for some regression.

For example, heading into tonight's game they rank 27th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.97. The Canadiens, on the other hand, rank 18th in that stat.

Maybe you think Craig Anderson has all of a sudden turned into Vladislav Tretiak, and he's going to keep up his .970 save percentage. If that's the case, go right ahead and bet on the Sabres.

I'll be on the other side, betting on the Canadiens as mispriced underdogs.

Panthers/Flyers UNDER 6.5 (+105)

The Florida Panthers are not the same team we saw just a year ago, when it seemed like every game they play was a goals-bonanza. New head coach, Paul Maurice, is making them play a much more defensive style of play, which may not be as exciting, but it's built for long term success.

You can already see the difference in their stats. Last season, they had a 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes of 2.49. This season, that number has already been lowered to 2.18.

Tonight, they take on a Flyers team who will likely be starting Carter Hart in between the pipes. Hart has been solid in net so far this season, sporting a .949 save percentage.

Those two factors are enough for me to take a shot on the UNDER 6.5 at plus-money.

Senators +105 vs. Wild

The Minnesota Wild acquired Marc-Andre Fleury last season, and things have not gone as well as they had hoped. This season, Fleury has an .869 save percentage, one of the worst in the NHL. It might be a sign that the 37-year old's career is coming to an end.

Tonight, he and the Wild will have to take on an Ottawa Senators team that ranks fifth in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes at 3.00. They have also been creating the fourth most high-danger scoring chances per game this season at 15.67.

An offensive-minded team that is taking on a slumping goaltender is a recipe for disaster for the away team. I'll back Ottawa as home underdogs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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