Betsided

NHL Best Bets Today (Buy Low on the Calgary Flames)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 8, 2022; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Calgary Flames center Nazem Kadri (91) celebrates his goal
Nov 8, 2022; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Calgary Flames center Nazem Kadri (91) celebrates his goal / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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I may or may not be on the biggest NHL hot streak of my betting career.

Another 3-0 sweep last night and now I'm 9-1 over my last 10 picks and have completely erased my disastrous start to the year and am now creeping up to double-digit unit profit. This hot streak won't last forever, but let's take advantage of it while we can.

Let's dive into my picks for tonight. For the best available odds on every game on the slate, BetSided's Ben Heisler has you covered here.

NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date

  • 43-35 (+7.19 units)

NHL Best Bets for Today (Thursday, November 10)

  • Blue Jackets -120 vs. Flyers
  • Flames +150 vs. Bruins
  • Coyotes/Islanders OVER 6 (-110)

Blue Jackets -120 vs. Flyers

There's no doubt this is an ugly game to bet on, but I refuse to believe that the Flyers can keep up this level of player. They're 7-3-2 on the year, but they're statistically one of the worst teams in the NHL.

They rank dead last in the NHL in 5-on-5 CORSI% at 40.58%. They're getting outshot by an average of 35.71 to 26.24. They're also 31st in both expected goals against per 60 minutes and expect goals for per 60 minutes. Those numbers are simply not sustainable.

The Blue Jackets aren't a great team either, but they outrank the Flyers is just about every area. I'll gladly take Columbus as slight favorites at home tonight.

Flames +150 vs. Bruins

The Bruins should probably be favored, but not by this number. They're a very good team, but their record will regress in the coming weeks. The Flames outrank them in 5-on-5 CORSI%, with Calgary coming in at seventh and the Bruins ranking 10th.

They were the hottest team out of the gates, but have begun to fall off in recent games. Over their last five games, they rank 17th in expected goals, looking more like the team that struggled offensively last season.

Meanwhile, the Flames have taken a little while to adjust to their new roster, but have been trending in the opposite direction than the Bruins. Since October 27th, they rank fourth in CORSI%.

I'll fade the Bruins tonight in a game that I feel the odds are mispriced.

Coyotes/Islanders OVER 6 (-110)

I keep saying it about the Islanders, but this team has been playing a completely different style of hockey compared to what we're used to seeing from them. What used to be a defense-first team that played a modified trap, they're now playing a wide-open style that looks closer to last year's Florida Panthers team.

Their expected goals per game is 3.25 and their expected goals against per game is 3.54. If they keep those numbers up, they're going to continue to bet a good team to bet the OVER on.

Let's also remember these are two of the best shooting teams in the league. The Coyotes lead the NHL in shooting percentage at 12.46% and the Islanders rank 9th at 11.01%. With the total at the even number of six, I love the OVER in this matchup tonight.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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