NHL Best Bets Today (Canadiens Continue to be Undervalued)
Let's stay hot!
I went 2-1 with my NHL picks last night, 3-1 if you include the bonus pick I gave out on yesterday's episode of Daily Betslip.
People are saying I'm the hottest NHL bettor in the internet. I'm not saying that, but some people are.
We only have four games to pick from tonight, so our options are a little bit more limited. Let's dive into my three best bets.
You can also find the best up-to-date-odds for every game on Wednesday night's slate here.
NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date
- 40-35 (+4.49 units)
NHL Best Bets for Today (Wednesday, November 9)
- Penguins -125 vs. Capitals
- Canadiens +130 vs. Canucks
- Wild -165 vs. Ducks
Penguins -125 vs. Capitals
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been much better offensively this season compared to the Washington Capitals, and I think this is a great buy low spot on them after starting the year 4-5-2. They rank fourth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes at 3.22, while the Capitals rank 26th in that category at 2.28.
The Capitals are currently allowing 2.91 goals per 60 minutes, but have an expected goals against of 3.22. The numbers are showing me we're going to see positive regression from the Penguins and regression from the Capitals.
I'll take the Penguins as slight road favorites in this one.
Canadiens +130 vs. Canucks
It really pains me to continue betting on the Montreal Canadiens as a Maple Leafs fan, but sportsbooks continue to price them like they're a bottom five team in the NHL this season, but the numbers show otherwise.
They certainly aren't a great team, but they're good enough to not be home underdogs to the Canucks. Montreal ranks 23rd in 5-on-5 CORSI%, while the Canucks rank 25th.
Vancouver does have a significant advantage on special teams, so the Canadiens would be wise to stay out of the box tonight. If they can, they should be able to hang with the Canucks.
Wild -165 vs. Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are the worst defensive team in the NHL. They rank dead last in both expected goals against per 60 minutes at 3.9 and high-danger scoring chances allowed at 17.36.
The Wild also dominate them in between the blue lines, coming in at 13th in CORSI% compared to the Ducks at 29th.
Minnesota is coming off a tough loss to Los Angeles last night, but this game is a complete mismatch so I'm willing to lay the juice on the road team.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.