Betsided

NHL Best Bets Today (Maple Leafs Will End Devils' Bid for Franchise Record)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 17, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting (58) has a shot
Nov 17, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting (58) has a shot / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
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We broke even in last night's two game NHL slate. A +100 win on the Buffalo Sabres over the Montreal Canadiens was then wiped away by the Los Angeles Kings falling to the New York Rangers.

But that's okay because if you're not losing, you're winning, and no blood was drawn last night.

Thankfully, we have a huge 15-game slate on Wednesday night, so there is no shortage of games to bet on. Let's dive into my best bets.

NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date

  • 53-52-1 (+0.88 units)

NHL Best Bets Today (Wednesday, November 23rd)

  • Predators -105 vs. Red Wings
  • Maple Leafs +118 vs. Devils
  • Panthers -105 vs. Bruins
  • Oilers/Islanders OVER 6.5 (-110)
  • Senators +195 vs. Golden Knights

Predators -105 vs. Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings have played above their skill level early in the season and it's about time for us to see some regression from them. They're scoring 3.12 goals per 60 minutes, but their expected goals per game is only 2.78, a difference of 0.34. Scoring that often above what you're expected typically eventually regresses to the mean.

Scoring won't come easy tonight when they take on one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, Juuse Saros of the Predators. I'll back Nashville as a very slight underdog.

Maple Leafs +118 vs. Devils

The New Jersey Devils have a chance to win their franchise record 14th straight game tonight. I will be betting on them to fail to achieve that feat and I'll back the Maple leafs as +118 underdogs.

The Devils are still playing at an elite level, but they've begun to regress slightly in recent games. For example, over their last 10 games, the Devils rank 11th in expected goals against, well below the Maple Leafs who rank fourth in that stat over the same stretch of games.

I'll back Toronto to break the hearts of New Jersey fans tonight.

Panthers -105 vs. Bruins

The Boston Bruins have not been playing as well as their record indicates. They rank only 15th in the NHL in 5-on-5 CORSI% over their last 10 games, well below the Panthers who come in at second. This is a picture perfect "sell high" spot on the Bruins.

Their offense has been lacking as well, ranking 23rd in expected goals and 21st in high-danger scoring chances during the same stretch of games.

Look past the records. The Panthers have been playing better hockey as of late.

Oilers/Islanders OVER 6.5 (-110)

This is a game between two of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. The Oilers rank 25th in expected goals against this season, and the Islanders are even worse at 28th. They're also 21st and 29th in high-danger scoring chances allowed.

That level of poor defensive play should lead to goals, so I'll back the OVER in this interconference matchup.

Senators +195 vs. Golden Knights

There's no way that the Ottawa Senators should be this big of an underdog against the Golden Knights. If you look past the two teams records, then you'll see why I say that.

Heading into tonight, the Senators rank 10th in CORSI% and the Golden Knights are down at 18th. Ottawa also outranks Vegas in expected goals for and high-danger scoring chances. To be fair, the Golden Knights have been the better defensive team this season, but that doesn't justify a -230 price point.

I'll take a shot on the Senators to pull off the upset.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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