NHL Playoff Series Odds and Predictions for Round 2 (Who Will Advance?)
The opening round of the NHL Playoffs is officially in the books which means we can now move on to Round 2.
The Rangers and Hurricanes got a head start in the second round, playing the first game of their series before the Stars and Golden Knights played in Game 7. The Rangers snagged the 4-3 win on home ice.
Now, I'm going to do the same thing I did for the opening round and predict the winner for every series, as well as how many games the series will last. I went 6-2 with my picks in Round 1 while also correctly picking the exact amount of games in the Oilers/Kings and Rangers/Capitals series.
Let's see if I can improve on those marks in Round 2.
NHL Playoffs Second Round Series Odds and Predictions
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Series Prediction
We already know the result of Game 1 so I'm cheating a little bit when it comes to predicting the series outcome. With that being said, I'm still going to back the Hurricanes despite losing the opening game.
The Hurricanes were the better team this season, even if the final standings didn't back that claim up. They led the NHL in CORSI%, FENWICK%, and ranked second in expected goals percentage. Meanwhile, the Rangers relied on sharp shooting and special teams moreso than a strong performance between the blue lines during even strength play.
That sharpshooting, combined with a poor performance from Frederik Andersen, led to them winning the first game of the series, but it's tough to rely on just that for a best-of-seven set. I think the Hurricanes end up coming out on top in a series that will go back-and-forth throughout.
Prediction: Hurricanes (+110) to win in seven games
Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks Series Prediction
In my opinion, the Vancouver Canucks' Stanley Cup hopes were dashed when Thatcher Demko was announced out for the rest of the postseason. They were a dark horse contender to begin with, but Demko was good enough to drag them all the way to the final if he could have stayed healthy.
Now, they have to rely on Casey DeSmith or Arturs Silovs to try to stop the best offense in all of hockey. I don't think that's going to work well for them.
The Oilers led the NHL in expected goals percentage this season and then dominated the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round. The majority of the Canucks regular season success came from leading the league in PDO, a stat that measures both shooting percentage and save percentage. Without Demko, they've lost one-half of that equation.
I think the Oilers will continue to cruise against the Canucks and be the last Canadian team standing.
Prediction: Oilers (-260) to win in five games
Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins Series Odds and Prediction
As much as I would have loved to see my Toronto Maple Leafs advance to the second round, I was confident whoever was going to win that series would fall short against the Panthers. Florida is on another level compared to the Bruins. All you have to do is look at the regular season metrics for proof of that.
The Panthers finished the year ranking second in CORSI%, third in expected goals percentage, and fourth in high-danger scoring chance differential. The Bruins ranked 24th, 20th, and 18th in those three categories.
Boston is a gritty enough team to grind out a couple of wins, but the Panthers will ultimately advance to the Eastern Conference Final.
Prediction: Panthers (-190) win in six games
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche Series Odds and Prediction
If these two teams faced each other in the first round, I wouldn't hesitate to back the Stars. After watching the opening round, I'm going to lean towards the Avalanche instead.
No team impressed me more in Round 1 than the Avs. They had an expected goal differential of +1.57, the best mark amongst all first round teams. They were creating chances nonstop in every single game and their playoff experience proved invaluable against the Jets.
They may not be as deep a team as the version that won the Stanley Cup two seasons ago, but they remind me of the prime version of the Lightning we saw up until this season, that may not have had their best stuff in the regular season but knew how to crank things up in the playoffs.
It's a tall order for the Stars to turn around after an emotionally draining seven-game series against the Golden Knights to now have to face the juggernaut Avalanche.
I'll back the Avs as slight underdogs and the series may be over quicker than you think.
Prediction: Avalanche (+100) win in five games
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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