NHL Playoff Series Odds and Predictions for Opening Round
The NHL Playoffs are finally here and all eight matchups are set for the opening round. 16 teams will battle it out for the right to lift Lord Stanley's Cup and the NHL's postseason promises to bring fireworks as it always does.
The first round of action is set to begin on Saturday night so we don't have much time to place our futures bets for the puck drops. In this article, I'm going to break down the odds and my prediction for each of the eight series. Let's dive into it.
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NHL Playoffs First Round Series Odds and Predictions
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Series Prediction
In my opinion, this is one of the most mismatched series in the opening round. The Carolina Hurricanes are favorites to win the Cup for good reason and while the late-season run by the Islanders was impressive, this year's version of the 'Canes is much healthier than the one New York almost upset in 2023.
Carolina finished the season ranking first in both CORSI% and FENWICK% along with second in expected goals percentage. The Islanders rank 27th, 23rd, and 23rd in those three respective metrics.
Let's not forget Frederik Andersen has a stellar .951 save percentage since returning from injury in March. The Isles are in trouble in this series.
Prediction: Hurricanes (-350) to win in four games
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Series Prediction
I won't be able to put my Maple Leafs fandom aside when writing about this series. Normally, you'd think that would mean I'd be betting on my team because I'm blinded by my fandom, but in the case of the Leafs, it's the opposite. There is no world I can see where the Leafs can get past the Bruins in this round.
Not only do the Maple Leafs have a long history of completely imploding in the playoffs, but the Bruins own real estate the size of Ontario in the heads of the Leafs. Brad Marchand will be up to his own tricks and this series will be over in the blink of an eye.
To be fair, most of the advanced numbers and metrics point to the Leafs being the better team, but some times you have to put that aside and just look at the history of the two teams who are playing. Boston's massive goaltending advantage will also certainly play a role in the downfall of Toronto.
Prediction: Bruins (-120) win in five games
Panthers vs. Lightning Series Prediction
This isn't the same Panthers team that limped into the playoffs and then went on an improbable run all the way to the Stanley Cup Final last year. This year's version of the team is significantly better. They finished the year second in both CORSI% and FENWICK% along with third in expected goals percentage. In my opinion, right they're the second best team in the playoffs next to the Carolina Hurricanes.
Don't let the recent Stanley Cup wins sway you to pick the Lightning as underdogs. Sure, they have experience, but this team ranked just 18th in expected goals percentage and Andrei Vasilevskiy has had a down year with a save percentage of just .900. Experience can only take you so far in the NHL Playoffs.
Prediction: Panthers (-175) to win in six games
Rangers vs. Capitals Series Prediction
I was ready and willing to bet against the Rangers in the opening round of the playoffs, but somehow they get to face the Washington Capitals, who are the worst playoff team in recent memory. Even though I think New York is the most fraudulent team in the league, the Rangers are still significantly better than the Capitals.
Washington was somehow able to sneak into the postseason despite ranking 28th in CORSI%. Only the Canadiens, Ducks, Blackhawks, and Sharks ranked worse in that stat. They also finished the season with a -37 goal differential, the third worst mark in the Eastern Conference. Six non-playoff teams in the conference finished with a better goal differential than the Capitals.
We'll have to unfortunately wait until the second round to fade the fraudulent Rangers.
Prediction: Rangers (-375) win in four games
Canucks vs. Predators Series Prediction
The Vancouver Canucks got off to a hot start to their season by scoring goals at an unsustainable rate, ranking a mile above the rest of the NHL in PDO (shooting% + save%). As expected, they came back down to earth in the second half of the season but still played well enough to win the Pacific Division.
Unfortunately for them, they're set to take on a Nashville Predators team that has played some of its best hockey heading into the playoffs. In their last 25 games, they rank fifth in the NHL in both CORSI% and expected goals percentage.
I'll back the hotter team to upset Vancouver and advance to the second round.
Prediction: Predators (+125) to win in seven games
Avalanche vs. Jets Series Prediction
I'm a lot lower on the Colorado Avalanche than a lot of other hockey fans and bettors but despite having Stanley Cup experience and the likely Hart Trophy winner on their team, their metrics aren't as good as you may expect. For example, they ranked just 14th in expected goals percentage this season and 17th in that stat over their last 25 games.
We have also all seen time and time again that a great goaltender can lead a team on a deep playoff run and the Jets boast the eventual Vezina Trophy winner in Connor Hellebuyck. If he can play as well as he did in the regular season, Winnipeg will be a tough team to beat.
I set this series as closer to a pick'em so I'll jump on the Jets as +115 underdogs.
Prediction: Jets (+115) to win in seven games
Stars vs. Golden Knights series prediction
I'm not a believer in the defending Stanley Cup champs. For what it's worth, I rank them as the worst of the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference. They played uninspired hockey at times this season, ranking 21st in CORSI% and 17th in expected goals percentage. The Stars ranked fourth in both those stats.
Goaltending was a big part of the Golden Knights' postseason success last season but now their goalies, Logan Thompson and Adin Hill, are coming into this year's playoffs in terrible form. Vegas has a team save percentage of .887 over their last 25 games, one of the worst marks in the league.
The defending champs' bid for back-to-back Stanley Cups may suffer a quick death.
Prediction: Stars (-135) win in five games
Kings vs. Oilers Series Prediction
In my opinion, this is the best team the Edmonton Oilers have had in the Connor McDavid era. After an abysmal start to the year, they got hot in the final two thirds of the season and finished the year ranking third in CORSI% and first in expected goals percentage.
The Kings' season went the opposite direction. Around the holidays I was claiming the Kings were the best team in the NHL while leading the league in most defensive metrics. That didn't last much longer after that and they looked like a good-but-not-great team in the second half of the 2023-24 campaign.
Los Angeles is overmatched by Edmonton in this one.
Prediction: Oilers (-185) to win in five games
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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