Ole Miss vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 4
By Reed Wallach
Alabama has struggled more than any other time during the Nick Saban era, having an identity crisis at quarterback and sitting at only 2-1 on the year as the team has traded out who is under center.
Now, the Crimson Tide face a ranked Ole Miss team at home on Saturday afternoon, coached by former Saban staffer Lane Kiffin. The Rebels have been led by stud quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has looked in command of the offense in his second season. Can he lead the Rebels to a program-defining win?
Before we give out a best bet, check out my full deep dive on Alabama's quarterback situation here.
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Ole Miss vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Betting Trends
- Ole Miss has covered in all three games this season
- Ole Miss has gone OVER in two of three games this season
- Alabama is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
Ole Miss vs. Alabama How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 23
- Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
- Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Ole Miss Record: 3-0
- Alabama Record: 2-1
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch
Ole Miss
Jaxson Dart: Dart has been excellent despite some injuries to key skill position players, completing more than two-thirds of his passes for 852 yards with seven touchdowns through the air and two on the ground. Dart has been dangerous with his legs this season, including a 136 yard day on the ground against Georgia Tech last week.
Alabama
Jalen Milroe: After seemingly being benched last week as the Crimson Tide went to Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson, Milroe is back under center for this weeks matchup against Ole Miss. Milroe has completed 60% of his passes in two games, but struggled with turnovers against Texas (two interceptions on four turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus) and took five sacks.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
Despite transfer Zhakari Franklin missing the entire season and fellow transfer Tre Harris missing last week's game against Georgia Tech, Dart has led a unit that is top 10 in both success rate through the air and EPA/Pass. Granted, the team played an FCS team in Mercer as well as a poor defense in Georgia Tech, but Tulane is an above average defensive unit.
Ole Miss plays fast, and will hope that star running back Quinshon Judkins is back after being limited against Georgia Tech with a leg injury. If he is, Judkins can put pressure on the Crimson Tide if the team falls behind.
Given the state of the quarterback room, this can be a big issue for Alabama, who was outgained on a yards per play basis in the team's 30-24 win last year at Ole Miss.
The Rebels have an identity on offense, and the defense has been up to snuff so far this season as well, 27th in EPA/Play through three games. Meanwhile, Alabama seems to not have a scheme fit to its quarterback that gives the team the best chance to succeed.
Given the questions around Alabama's quarterback room, I believe that the team will look to lean on its defense to slow down this up-tempo Rebels offensive attack, possibly leading to an under play.
However, I believe that blood is in the water for the Crimson Tide and that Kiffin can scheme up a game plan to open up looks for his skilled wide receiver corps (that hopefully will be at full strength Satuday).
I'm taking Ole Miss with the points in what should be a tight game throughout, but I also believe that this game will skew towards a lower scoring affair and the under is also a prudent decision as I believe Alabama is limited in terms of offensive play calling.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!