Betsided

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Updated Odds and Prediction: What Bettors Need to Know

By Ben Heisler

Mike Leach and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are currently a pick 'em vs. Ole Miss in the annual Egg Bowl game on Thanksgiving.
Mike Leach and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are currently a pick 'em vs. Ole Miss in the annual Egg Bowl game on Thanksgiving. / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
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If your heart rate starts to slow down from the mountain of food you've digested over the course of the day on Thursday, the rivalry showdown between No. 9 Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State can act as your defibrillator for the evening.

In Year 1 of the Egg Bowl between Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach, the Rebels' got the best of the Bulldogs 31-24 in Oxford. Now, the site returns to Starkville where the Bulldogs are 2-1-0 this season against the spread as a home favorite. However, with a win, Ole Miss can put themselves into an excellent position to play in a New Year's Six game.

Here are the latest odds on the spread, moneyline and total for the 2021 Egg Bowl, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

  • Ole Miss: +1.5 (-110) -- opened at Pick 'Em
  • Mississippi State: -1.5  (-110)  -- opened at Pick 'Em

Moneyline:

  • Ole Miss: +105 -- opened at -110
  • Mississippi State: -125 -- opened at -110

Total:

  • 64 (Over -110/Under -110) -- opened at 62

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • The Rebels are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games against the Bulldogs. 
  • The Rebels are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. 
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Rebels’ last five games. 
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Bulldogs’ last five games at Mississippi State. 
  • The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games. 
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Bulldogs’ last five games. 
  • The UNDER is 7-1 in the Bulldogs' last eight games against the Rebels.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Even with the total moving from 62 to 64, I'm still personally leaning towards the "OVER" in this game and will likely bet it up to 65.

While the late movement to the side of Mississippi State after spending most of the week as a pick 'em is noteworthy, I still think Matt Corral and the Rebels are the superior team, despite letting an atrocious Vanderbilt team hang around and only win at home by 14-points when favored by more than five touchdowns.

Meanwhile, BetSided's Matt De Saro was all over Ole Miss in his original prediction piece, citing their ability to protect the quarterback and their ability to take and hit receivers deep downfield, stretching out defensive coverage in the process.

One area in particular the Rebels shine is in the passing game. Corral has 3,099 yards on the year and is completing 67.4 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions. The Rebels are one of the best programs at protecting their QB and Corral has been sacked just four times. Meanwhile, The Bulldogs are 107th in the nation with just four sacks on the year which ranks them 107th overall. The Bulldogs’ secondary isn’t much better and allows 229.7 passing yards per game. Good enough for 75th in all of college football. Corral and the Rebels meanwhile are 18th in the FBS with 286.3 passing yards per game. I think that Corral and this offense take of this game early in the wake of a “close call” against Vanderbilt. Kiffin and company have all the skills needed to pilot this team to its second straight win in the Egg Bowl.

Regardless of whether Ole Miss can pull of the road upset, we should expect to see plenty of offense between two teams ranked fifth (Ole Miss) and 22nd (Mississippi State) in college football for total offense.

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