Oregon vs. Washington Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 7
By Reed Wallach
Oregon and Washington meet in a battle of unbeaten PAC-12 contenders with Heisman Trophy quarterbacks on both sides.
In a rematch from last year's thriller that Washington won in Eugene, Oregon will look to exact revenge against the Huskies on the road. Both teams enter undefeated with a goal of not only a PAC-12 title but a College Football Playoff berth. This game will serve as a launching pad for the winner's CFP berth.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. each stand at the top of the Heisman Trophy conversation and can bolster their respective resumes with a strong showing on Saturday.
There's a ton on the line in Seattle on Saturday afternoon, here's our take on the game:
Oregon vs. Washington Odds, Spread and Total
Washington vs. Oregon Betting Trends
- Oregon is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Washington is 3-2 ATS this season
- Oregon has gone UNDER in four of five games
- Washington has gone UNDER in three of five games
Oregon vs. Washington How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 14th
- Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
- Venue: Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ABC
- Oregon Record: 5-0
- Washington Record: 5-0
Oregon vs. Washington Key Players to Watch
Oregon
Bo Nix: Nix is the engine behind the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of success rate this season. Despite a new offensive coordinator in Will Stein, the Ducks offense hasn't missed a beat this season. Nix has passed for 1,459 with 15 passing touchdowns and only one interception this season, but has stark splits between his home and road production.
In his career dating back to his time at Auburn, Nix has been one of the best players in the sport when at home, completing more than 67% of his passes with a staggering 49-4 TD-INT ratio while passing for 6,423 yards. However, on the road, Nix has struggled far more often. He has completed nearly 63% of his passes for 4,857 yards with 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
Washington
Michael Penix Jr.: Penix Jr. is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as he is averaging north of 400 yards through the air per game this season. The Huskies passing attack is arguably the best in the country and has led the team to at least 40 points in four of five games this season.
Oregon vs. Washington Prediction and Pick
Under second-year head coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks are starting to see the production he had hoped when he joined the staff from Georgia where he was the defensive coordinator. After too many lapses in coverage last year, the Ducks defense appears more buttoned up.
The Ducks have faced the likes of Texas Tech on the road and done enough to stymie an elite offensive group. This season, the Ducks rank 14th in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade and 18th in tackling. In the second season under former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, the unit has taken a step forward, top 10 in EPA/Pass so far this season. While the team was an elite coverage and tackling unit last season, there were way too many holes down the field, the unit was 109th in EPA/Pass and 122nd in passing success rate allowed. We are starting to see a unit look more like the one Lanning had expected when taking over.
It's nearly impossible to slow down Washington's offense, but the Ducks may have an edge in this matchup given the Huskies lackluster defense to date.
Washington's offense will score, no doubt, but I don't believe its defense will shut down Oregon's to win with margin. This is a battle of the two best offenses in the nation in terms of success rate, Oregon first and Washington second, but it's the Huskies defense that is the anchor.
The Huskies are 112th in coverage grade this season and 98th in tackling. Oregon has been able to win both on the ground (first in yards per carry) and through the air (first and completion percentage) while bolstering one of the best offensive lines in college football (fourth in line yards).
I believe the diversity of the Oregon offense is going to give Washington more trouble than the pass-happy Huskies offense. I rate the Ducks slightly better than the Huskies, and while I give the Huskies a bump for being at home, I lean towards getting the field goal in a game that will likely come down to the wire, just like last year.
All eyes will be on Penix Jr. and Nix and the team's potent offenses, but this game will be determined by which defenses can get the stops to win this one. I'll trust Nix to slay his road game demons and get Oregon a cover as small underdogs.
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