Betsided

Packers Defense No Match for 49ers Rush Attack

By Iain MacMillan

The 49ers are set to take on the Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
The 49ers are set to take on the Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
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The San Francisco 49ers upset the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday in the NFL Wild Card round, and now they'll travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in next weekend's Divisional Round.

The Packers were the No. 1 seed in the NFC, meaning that got a BYE in the first week of the playoffs. WynnBET has them set as 5-point home favorites against the 49ers, with a berth in the NFC Championship Game on the line.

The two teams already played once this season, with the Packers edging out the 49ers 30-28 in a Week 3 matchup. I'm on the 49ers to exact their revenge this weekend, and I'll be taking them to win outright on the moneyline at +190 (bet $100 to profit $190).

Hear me out.

Why the 49ers Will Beat the Packers

This game is a hotly-contested matchup in the BetSided editor's room.

I know the Packers are the No. 1 seed. I know they have the best record in the NFL. I know Aaron Rodgers is likely going to win his second-straight MVP. I don't care.

I evaluate how good an NFL team is based on their stats. Pretend you don't know who owns the following statistics, and tell me if you'd guess they'd be the No. 1 seed in the NFL.

Packers Statistical Rankings:

  • 10th in Net Yards per Play (+0.46)
  • 9th in Yards per Play (+5.8)
  • 10th in Points per Play (0.420)
  • 16th in Opponent Yards per Play (5.4)
  • 10th in 3rd Down Offense
  • 24th in 3rd Down Defense
  • 18th in Red Zone Offense
  • 28th in Red Zone Defense
  • 20th in Yards per Carry (4.3)
  • 6th in Yards per Pass Attempt (7.6)
  • 31st in Opponent Yards per Carry (4.7)**
  • 4th in Opponent Yards per Pass Attempt (6.2)

49ers Statistical Rankings:

  • 2nd in Net Yards per Play (+1.06)
  • 1st in Yards per Play (+6.1)
  • 12th in Points per Play (0.406)
  • 4th in Opponent Yards per Play (5.1)
  • 14th in 3rd Down Offense
  • 16th in 3rd Down Defense
  • 1st in Red Zone Offense
  • 16th in Red Zone Defense
  • 15th in Yards per Carry (4.3)
  • 2nd in Yards per Pass Attempt (8.6)
  • 7th in Opponent Yards per Carry (4.0)
  • 9th in Opponent Yards per Pass Attempt (6.3)

If you blindly look at those two groups of numbers, there's no way you would honestly say that the top team is better.

49ers Can Exploit Packers Defense

The most important stat in the group above is the one I have labeled with asterisks. The Packers own the second worst run defense in the entire NFL. Sure, the 49ers didn't find much success on the ground against them in Week 3, but Elijah Mitchell didn't play in that game and that was before Deebo Samuel was implemented as a running back in the 49ers offense.

Mitchell is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt heading into this weekend, and Samuel is averaging an astounding 6.2. That's a tall order for a Packers defense who allowed 8.8 yards per carry against a Cleveland Browns team in Week 16.

The 49ers run the ball on 48.42% of plays, the fourth most in the NFL.

San Francisco is the last team that Green Bay was hoping to meet in the playoffs. They're a stylistic nightmare for them, and square bettors across the country who will scramble to bet on Aaron Rodgers and his dumb man bun, will be a little bit poorer by the time they go to bed on Saturday night.

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