Packers vs. Commanders Prediction: Taylor Heinicke Makes Commanders Better Right Now Over Carson Wentz

The Green Bay Packers are trending in the wrong direction after losing two straight games for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era.

If they lose on the road to the Washington Commanders this week, it will be the first time since 2018 that they've lost three straight games. They went onto go 6-9-1 that year, leading to the firing of Mike McCarthy and eventually Joe Philbin.

Meanwhile, Washington comes off a mini-bye after defeating the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 at Soldier Field, but won't have starting quarterback Carson Wentz after going on injured reserve this week.

With Taylor Heinicke returning under center for Washington, are they a live dog at home vs. a struggling Green Bay team?

Here's the latest odds for Sunday's matchup.

Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, and Total

Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total Movement in Week 7

This line has bounced around quite a bit. The initial opener on October 11 line was Green Bay -3.5. Then, throughout the week, the line reached as high as -7 for the Packers before dropping after their home beatdown by the New York Jets to -5.5.

For most of the week, it's sat anywhere between Green Bay -5 to -5.5, but has recently fallen to -4.5 at a handful of books.

Packers vs. Commanders Best Bet and Prediction

BetSided's Josh Yourish is on the Commanders to cover at home, and I'm right there with him.

Let's start on the offensive side of the ball where the Packers are really struggling to get anything consistent going. They're currently bottom-eight in points per game, and rank 31st in scoring per drive. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can still be key difference makers in the run game, but Rodgers is not throwing the ball downfield and it's causing defenses to line up more players in the box. Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 255 yards in a game this season; alarming for a two-time MVP.

Meanwhile, Washington's defense, via Sharp Football Analysis, rates second in the NFL in pressure rate, and first in percentage of hits on the quarterback in dropback situations. With a below average offensive line, and no consistent production through the air, the Commanders set up very well in this matchup.

The key is moving from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke, and to be honest, I actually think this is a short-term upgrade. Wentz simply hasn't produced despite being a much more talented quarterback, and I expect we'll see a better representation of Scott Turner's offense with Heinicke running the show on Sunday.

The trends may not favor Washington, but the matchup certainly does. I think they cover and are possibly even live on the moneyline as well.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.