One of my favorite pitchers to fade takes on one of my favorite pitchers to back as Sean Manaea of the San Diego Padres faces Edward Cabrera of the Miami Marlins.
Cabrera is a rising star and you should get familiar with him if you aren't already. He's allowed just three hits and zero runs over his last two starts while striking out 14. He's had one poor outing, but otherwise has a 0.41 ERA.
Manaea, on the other hand, has a 6.48 ERA in his last 10 starts. By allowing at least one home run in eight of those outings, Manaea is getting slammed and can't be trusted as a favorite.
San Diego finds itself a favorite anyway. Let's take a look at those odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before I dive deeper into this Padres vs Marlins matchup:
Padres vs Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total
- Padres -1.5 (+110)
- Marlins +1.5 (-130)
- Padres: -148
- Marlins: +138
- 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Padres vs Marlins Prediction and Pick
Edward Cabrera is a certified monster. Here are his top four pitches and the opponent's expected batting average for each:
- Changeup: .165
- 4-Seam Fastball: .179
- Slider: .183
- Curveball: .090
The guy is ridiculous. I know San Diego's lineup terrifies opposing pitchers, but Cabrera knows no fear.
The Padres are just 5-10 in their last 15 as road favorites and are certainly at a disadvantage on the mound. Sean Manaea is a disaster right now, with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 5.29 in four of his last five starts. That number would easily be the worst in MLB among qualified pitchers, and Manaea isn't showing signs of improvement.
Miami's bullpen cannot be trusted, so I'll back Cabrera and the Marlins in the first five innings instead of the full game. Look for Cabrera to dazzle while Manaea fizzles once again.
Pick: Marlins First Five Innings ML (+128)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.