Patriots' Recent ATS Record at Home After a Bye Week is Stunning

Bill Belichick's overall record after a bye week is outstanding, but he and the New England Patriots have been anything but a bettor's best friend after a bye at home over the last decade.

According to Vegas Insider host Joe Osborne, the Patriots are 1-10-1 Against the Spread (ATS) in their last 12 home games following a bye. It's a stunning number considering Belichick-led teams are 15-7 overall coming off a bye. But that doesn't mean you should blindly bet the Patriots as they take on the New York Jets as 3-point favorites.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

The Patriots beat the Jets two weeks ago 22-17 behind an outstanding defensive effort highlighted by forcing three interceptions from Jets QB Zach Wilson. But outside of those picks, the Jets actually outplayed the Patriots. That's why BetSided expert Iain MacMillan is picking the Jets as his upset of the week.

"I know the Patriots already beat them earlier this year, but the Jets gained 6.7 yards per play that game compared to 3.8 for the Patriots. If it wasn't for Zach Wilson throwing three interceptions, it was an extremely winnable game for New York," MacMillian writes.

"Let's also talk about how dominant the Jets' defense has been this season. They rank fourth in the NFL in opponent yards per play and third in opponent yards per pass attempt. I have no faith in Mac Jones against this Jets defense, so I'll back New York to win this game outright."

That being said, Belichick's record against the Jets is 35-10 and, again, he's got a 68.2 win percentage coming off a bye. Those also need to be factored in when wagering on this game.

Conflicting stats, to be sure, but the Patriots ATS record at home following a bye is certainly eye opening.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.