Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Collin Sexton, Julius Randle)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA on New Year's Day.

New York Knicks forward Julius Randle.
New York Knicks forward Julius Randle. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The end of 2023 was a ceremonious one, as we cashed three of the four plays in yesterday's Peter's Points to get back to plus units on the season.

Now, to ring in the New Year I have a three-pack of bets for the action on Monday, including two players props.

The New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves start at 3 p.m. EST, so you'll want to get one bet in as soon as possible! Let's break down the picks:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 118-100-6 (+1.23 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 743-658-15 (+41.18 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Collin Sexton OVER 19.5 Points (-120)
  • Julius Randle OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+114)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors

Collin Sexton OVER 19.5 Points (-120)

Since entering the starting lineup for Will Hardy’s ball club, Collin Sexton has been on fire.

The former lottery pick is making the most of his opportunity, averaging 23.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game in 10 starts. 

He’s taking 15.7 shots per game over that stretch, and Sexton has 20 or more points in eight of those 10 games. 

Dallas ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating, so I think Sexton can have a big game on Monday, especially if his usage pushes 17 or more attempts – something he’s done seven 10 in his last 10 starts. 

Julius Randle OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+114)

This is a system play for Julius Randle, who has not shot the 3-ball well this season. 

However, Randle is averaging 5.0 attempts per game from beyond the arc, and he has a matchup which he’s historically shot a lot of 3s in on Monday. 

The Knicks take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that Randle torched for eight 3-pointers in both of his matchups against them last season. 

While he made just one 3-ball in the first meeting between these teams this season, Randle still took six shots from 3-point range. 

With the Wolves focusing on keeping him out of the paint, I expect Randle to look for his jumper more in this one. With RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley in Toronto, the Knicks need Randle to score all the points he can. 

Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto may be favored, but I’m not buying it against a Cleveland team that has thrived on the road in the 2023-24 season. 

The Raptors looked awful in a loss to the Detroit Pistons on Saturday night, and the team is just 5-6 against the spread as a home favorite this season. Even with new additions on the roster, I’m not sure how they will mesh in their first game with the team.  

Meanwhile, the Cavs have been sneaky solid on the road in the 2023-24 campaign. 

The team is an impressive 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, and the Cavs have a better record on the road (9-6) than they do at home (9-8). 

I can’t get behind this Raptors team – especially with so many new pieces in the rotation – against a Cleveland team that ranks top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Toronto has struggled to score the ball, ranking 23rd in true shooting percentage and 17th in offensive rating this season. 

Give me the Cavs to at least cover in this one. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.