Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid)
By Peter Dewey
Will Friday's NBA action be the day that we hit an elusive sweep in our NBA best bets?
It's been a rough go over the last month or so, treading water in the units category while finishing with an over. 500 record.
All it takes is one perfect day to really turn things around, and there's a chance I have it on the seven-game slate on Friday.
I have a pair of player props to target in the Charlotte Hornets-San Antonio Spurs game, and there is a player prop parlay on four superstars that I absolutely love tonight.
We're so due, so why not head into the weekend on a high note? Here are Friday's NBA picks:
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 158-142-6 (-4.96 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 783-700-15 (+34.98 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Miami Heat-Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline Parlay (-111)
- Tre Jones OVER 6.5 Assists (-145)
- LaMelo Ball UNDER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
- The Superstar Parlay (+108)
Miami Heat-Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline Parlay (-111)
I like both of these teams to cover on Friday night, but neither has been great against the spread as a home favorite, so why not just take them to win outright in this parlay?
If Miami wins, it’ll give us a chance to hedge the Lakers play if things don’t look to be going our way early.
Miami Heat Moneyline
The Heat have won both matchups against the Atlanta Hawks this season (one by eight points and another by nine points) and Jimmy Butler didn’t play in either game. Miami could be undervalued in this matchup.
There isn’t a team in the NBA worse against the spread than the Atlanta Hawks this season.
Atlanta is just 10-30 ATS in its first 40 games, the worst mark through 40 games in the last 30 years of the NBA!
Now, the team is a 6.5-point dog to the Heat with Young questionable on Friday. This is an invitation to fade the Hawks, who are just 4-9 against the spread as road dogs this season.
Give me the Heat to win at Kaseya Center, where they are 12-7 this season.
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline
The Lakers are 15-7 at Crypto.com Arena this season, and now they get a cupcake matchup with a struggling Brooklyn Nets team.
Brook has struggled as a road underdog, going 6-8 against the spread this season. Over the team’s last 17 games, it is just 2-15 ATS!
The Nets are a must fade right now, as they rank 26th in the league in net rating over the last 15 games. The only teams worse than Brooklyn in that stretch? Charlotte, Portland, Washington and Detroit. Yikes.
The Lakers have won two straight games and now have returned to their best offensive lineup as the starting group. I think they handle business at home on Friday night.
Tre Jones OVER 6.5 Assists (-145)
Tre Jones has been thriving for the Spurs since being inserted into the starting lineup, and he has back-to-back games with double-digit assists to show for it.
In his last seven games as a starter, Jones is averaging 13.3 potential assists per game, way up from his season average of 11.0. He’s only cleared 6.5 dimes three times in this seven-game stretch, but I expect him to have the ball in his hands more without Victor Wembanyama (out, rest) in action.
Plus, Charlotte ranks 27th in the NBA in opponent assists per game allowed – giving up 28.0 per night. Jones had seven assists in just 21:38 in the blowout win against Charlotte earlier this month.
LaMelo Ball UNDER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
I think LaMelo Ball’s assists and rebounds prop may be a little high on Friday night.
Ball has played three games since returning from an ankle injury, posting eight, 15 and 12 assists and rebounds in those contests.
The Charlotte Hornets star is taking plenty of shots, but his assist numbers have been well short of his season average of 7.8 per game. Over this three-game stretch, Ball is averaging 12.0 potential assists per game, nearly two lower than his season-long average of 13.7.
The Spurs are one of the worst defenses in the NBA, but this price is asking Ball to push a triple-double (especially if he doesn’t have huge assist numbers) on Friday. After he recorded just eight rebounds and assists in his last meeting with the Spurs, I’ll take the UNDER.
This is just a half unit play because Ball is a part of the next play…
The Superstar Parlay (+108)
- LaMelo Ball 30+ Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Kevin Durant 30+ Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Nikola Jokic 8+ Rebounds
- Joel Embiid 30+ Points
LaMelo Ball 30+ Points, Rebounds and Assists
Ball is taking a ton of shots, 57 in three games, since returning from an ankle injury, and he’s posted PRA numbers of 36, 36 and 41 in those games.
He now gets an easy matchup against a weak Spurs defense that won’t have Wemby in the lineup to anchor it. I think Ball scores enough to clear this prop.
Kevin Durant 30+ Points, Rebounds and Assists
Kevin Durant has cleared this prop 32 times in 33 games this season, yet it was only -475 to add to this parlay.
He’s due for a big game after a few down scoring nights, and the Suns superstar is averaging 28.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game in the 2023-24 season.
Nikola Jokic 8+ Rebounds
Nikola Jokic has eight or more rebounds in 36 of his 41 games this season, and now he gets a Boston team that he’s grabbed eight or more boards against in five straight meetings.
The Boston Celtics are third in the NBA in rebounding percentage, but they still rank 16th in opponent rebounds per game. I like Jokic to hit this prop with ease.
Joel Embiid 30+ Points
Joel Embiid, the league’s reigning MVP, has 30 or more points in 25 of his 29 games this season, and he’s scored at least 30 in 18 straight games.
There isn’t a single team that has an answer for him this season. I don’t expect Orlando to change that.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.