Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Pacers-Knicks, Timberwolves-Nuggets)

Does it get much better than having two Game 5 matchups with each series tied at two games apiece?

That’s what we have tonight with the New York Knicks hosting the Indiana Pacers and the Denver Nuggets hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

After going down 2-0, both Denver and Indiana picked up back-to-back wins, although the Nuggets did it on the road, to even their respective series. 

On Tuesday, I have a pick for the winner of each game, as well as a player prop for Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton, who has turned around his game after a sluggish showing in Game 1. 

Let’s keep things rolling after a strong 2-1-1 night on Monday:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 356-360-14 (-4.83 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 981-918-22 (+35.10 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+120) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
• Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-175) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit
• Tyrese Haliburton OVER 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112) – 0.5 unit

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+120) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

It seems like fatigue – and the serious injuries to the rotation – has finally caught up to the Knicks.

New York is down four rotation players, including three starters, at this point in the postseason, and the heavy minutes played by Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein have finally started to show with the players struggling in Game 4. 

Brunson, who is nursing a sore right foot, has lost some explosiveness and lift on his jump shot, causing him to shoot extremely poorly (16-for-43) over the last two games for New York. 

But, the bigger concern may be the absence of OG Anunoby, who is the team's defensive stopper and arguably the No. 2 or No. 3 option in the offense when he’s healthy. Unfortunately, the Knicks have been thrust into mismatches on Pascal Siakam (7-for-9 in Game 4) on the defensive end.

Maybe the home crowd helps propel the Knicks in this one, but I doubt it. 

Indiana’s depth is certainly helping, and it has continued to get out and run in transition. While the Knicks appear to be working hard to get a decent look every possession, Indiana is running circles around them in transition, setting up wide-open shooters time and time again. 

If that continues, it’ll take another playoff gem from Brunson just for New York to compete. Given his injury, I’m not sure that’s going to be the case in Game 5.

New York is just 13-16 when Anunoby sits this season, and I’d have the Pacers favored in this game. I think they will take control of the series tonight. 

Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-175) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit

I bet on Denver to win Game 4, and I mentioned in that betting preview that the series had flipped after Game 3. 

Now, Denver has a fresh slate in a three-game series at home, and I can’t imagine it putting up another clunker at Ball Arena after squandering Games 1 and 2 there. 

Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic have all played much better on offense the last two games, while the Timberwolves were toasted in the 2:40 that Anthony Edwards sat in Game 4, losing those minutes by 13 points. 

Edwards was great in Game 4, but it still wasn’t enough for the Wolves to win at home, now they have to pull off a third road win to take this series. That’s a tough task against a Nuggets team that went 33-8 straight up at home in the regular season. 

Denver’s defense has not wavered all series, allowing 107 or fewer points in every single game. Now that the offense is going, I think the defending champs put their foot down in Game 5.

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112) – 0.5 unit

Tyrese Haliburton has been the best player on the floor over the last few games of this series, registering 49, 46, and 31 points, rebounds, and assists over those contests. 

While bettors may look at the 31 as a reason to stay away from Hali, that came in the blowout win for Indiana in Game 4 when he played just 27:32 – by far his lowest minutes of the playoffs. 

Haliburton has cleared this line on points alone twice in this series, and I wonder if his passing (he averaged 10.9 assists per game in the regular season) becomes a bigger factor after finishing with seven or fewer assists in two straight games. 

New York has given Haliburton a ton of good looks from 3, and he’s responded, shooting 17-for-37 from in the last three games. If he’s going to see usage at that level as a scorer, he’s a must-bet to clear this prop on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.