Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson)
By Peter Dewey
The journey back to the green my season-long NBA best bets continues, and Tuesday night's action should be extremely fun to dive into with 22 teams in action.
There are several intriguing matchups on the slate, including:
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
- New Orleans Pelicans vs. New York Knicks
- Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
- San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
While I don't have a pick in every one of the 11 games on Tuesday, I do have six plays to consider wagering on, all in the prop market!
After a 6-for-7 day on Monday night, let's get some more wins on the board with the NBA entering the stretch run of the season!
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 232-223-10 (-5.38 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 857-781-19 (+34.56 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Evan Mobley OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit
- Donte DiVincenzo OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+100) – 0.5 unit
- Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
- Jalen Brunson to Record a Double-Double (+390) – 0.25 unit
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
- Jalen Duren OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
Evan Mobley OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit
This is a dream matchup against the Dallas Mavericks for Evan Mobley and the Cleveland Cavaliers, as the team ranks No. 9 in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season.
Dallas, on the other hand, ranks just 28th in that stat. Even with the likes of PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II down low, I expect Mobley and Jarrett Allen to dominate the glass.
I think there is a little value on Mobley – a chance to buy low – after he had just six rebounds against Washington. On the season, Mobley is averaging 10.0 rebounds per game, and he’s grabbed 9.8 per game over his last 10 despite dealing with a minutes limit.
Over that 10-game stretch, Mobley is averaging 14.7 rebound chances per night, clearing this prop in seven games.
At -105 to grab nine boards, Mobley is a steal on Tuesday night.
Donte DiVincenzo OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+100) – 0.5 unit
I can’t get over this line for Donte DiVincenzo, who is even money to make four or more shots from beyond the arc on Tuesday night.
It feels like a trap, but as always with these props I’m betting on usage rather than trying to get inside the heads of the oddsmakers.
Plus, DiVincenzo has actually made four or more shots from 3 in 10 of his last 11 games!
Not only that, but the Pelicans haven’t exactly limited 3-pointers this season, ranking 24th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game (13.4). Opponents are shooting the second-worst percentage in the league against NOLA, but they’re still making a respectable number of shots per game.
The volume is going to be there for DiVincenzo, who has attempted 12.3 shots per game from beyond the arc in this 11-game stretch. He’s also shooting 41.7 percent from 3 on the season, so we know he’s capable of knocking down the 3-ball at a high clip.
Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
I have two props for Jalen Brunson tonight, and the first one is simply a play on his improved assist numbers, as he’s seen his potential assists skyrocket since Julius Randle and OG Anunoby have been sidelined.
Since those two starters went down, Brunson is averaging 7.7 assists per game across 11 contests, clearing this prop in eight of those games. He’s averaging 13.6 potential assists per game over that stretch.
New Orleans ranks 18th in the NBA in opponent assists per game, and I’d expect the team to try to take the ball out of Brunson’s hands on Tuesday night and make another player on the Knicks beat them.
Jalen Brunson to Record a Double-Double (+390) – 0.25 unit
This is a bit of a long shot bet, but it’s one worth placing for Brunson on Tuesday night.
Over his last three games, Brunson has recorded 12, nine and 12 assists, and he has three double-doubles in his last eight games.
The All-Star point guard is being forced to move the ball, but with additions like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks and improved play from Precious Achiuwa, Brunson has more pieces to rely on in the Knicks offense.
This season, Brunson is averaging 12.0 potential assists per game, but he’s seen that number jump to 13.9 over his last 10 games and 14.8 over his last five games.
He’s going to score 10 points – there’s been just one game this season where he didn’t – so we’re essentially getting +390 odds for Brunson to record 10 dimes, something he’s done in two of his last three games.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexader has torched the Houston Rockets this season, scoring 33 points on 13-of-18 shooting in his first meeting against them before dropping 36 points on Sunday.
SGA is averaging 31.2 points per game on the season, scoring 32 or more in 29 of his 56 games.
Houston’s defense has gone from No. 2 in defensive rating at home to a bottom half defensive rating on the road, and SGA made things look easy on Sunday, hitting 13-of-23 shots from the field.
The All-NBA guard is going to push 20 shot attempts on a nightly basis, and Houston simply hasn’t had an answer for him this season – or any season. He’s cleared 31.5 points in five of his last seven matchups with the Rockets.
Jalen Duren OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
I’m going back to the well with the same Jalen Duren prop that we took at 12.5 last night in the Detroit Pistons’ loss to the New York Knicks.
Duren smashed that line, finishing with 16 rebounds and four assists, the seventh time in eight games he’s recorded at least 14 rebounds and assists.
Now, Duren gets to take on the Chicago Bulls, who rank 16th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 23rd in opponent assists per game.
This season, Duren is averaging 19.4 rebound chances and 4.0 potential assists per game. That’s translated to an impressive actual 12.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per night. He’s a must bet at this number.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.