Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Devin Vassell, Cade Cunningham)

Wednesday night's NBA action was extremely kind to yours truly, as a 10-pick slate resulted in a 7-2-1 finish.

That's pushed the season-long record in these bets to 21 over .500 and into the plus money on the season. It's been an up-and-down campaign, but I might be peaking at the right time.

While I don't have another 10 plays on Thursday night, there are four bets that I am placing, including going back to the well with a pick that hit for us last night.

Let's dive into tonight's NBA action:

If you’re looking to bet on any game in the NBA tonight, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $150 in bonus bets -- if their bet wins.

Sign up for FanDuel now!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 260-239-11 (+1.54 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 885-797-20 (+41.48 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+195) – 0.5 unit
• Devin Vassell UNDER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Miami Heat +4.5 (-102) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
• Cade Cunningham OVER 21.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+195) – 0.5 unit

Domantas Sabonis cashed for us at +230 to record a triple-double last night, and I’m going right back to him tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. 

After three straight games without a triple-double, Sabonis added to his league lead in that category with a massive game against Los Angeles.

The Sacramento Kings big man had 16 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists, showing that he’s an assist threat when De’Aaron Fox is healthy and in action. 

If Fox suits up on the second night of a back-to-back, I love taking Sabonis to get another triple-double at near 2/1 odds against the Spurs. 

In the last meeting between these teams, Sabonis had 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists, and now the Spurs lack the rim protection they usually have down low with Victor Wembanyama (out in this game) anchoring the defense. 

That could make for some easy buckets for Sabonis, and some easy looks at the rim for his teammates.

Sabonis is 2-for-2 on triple-doubles against the Spurs this season, so why not take him again on Thursday night?

Devin Vassell UNDER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

This may be my favorite prop on the entire slate. 

Wembanyama isn’t playing tonight, but I think oddsmakers have gone too far with Devin Vassell’s points, rebounds and assists prop. 

The Spurs wing should see some more usage on offense, but he’s cleared this number just eight times in 57 games all season long. 

But what are his stats when Wemby sits? Surely, they go up?

That’s not the case. 

In six games without the rookie sensation in the lineup, Vassell is averaging just 14.0 points, 3.7 assists and 2.5 rebounds per game. He’s failed to clear this prop in all six of those contests. 

The Spurs could be in danger of getting blown out without their best player, and that would certainly kill Vassell’s chances of hitting this prop. 

While he has been scoring the ball well as of late (21.8 points per game over his last 23 games), I think he could struggle a little with all the defensive attention turning to him on Thursday.

Miami Heat +4.5 (-102) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit

Don’t look now, but the Miami Heat are red hot coming into the final stretch of the season, winning eight of their last 10 games. 

Miami has jumped into the No. 6 spot in the East, and the team is starting to get healthier with Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Bam Adebayo all set to be in action tonight. Tyler Herro (knee/foot) is out. 

This game sets up well for Miami, who is 13-7 against the spread as a road underdog, to cover against Dallas. 

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game with a 9-12 against the spread record as home favorites, and the team may be overmatched on the defensive end. 

Miami is sixth in the league in net rating over its last 10 games (and fifth in the league in defensive rating). Meanwhile, the Mavericks clock in at No. 23 in defensive rating in that same stretch. 

If the Heat can play this game at their pace, I think Dallas could be in trouble at home.

Cade Cunningham OVER 21.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

This is a volume play for Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham at home against a banged-up Brooklyn team.

The Brooklyn Nets won’t have Cam Thomas, Cam Johnson, or Ben Simmons (out for the season) in this game, so Detroit may be able to hang around as a 2.5-point underdog. 

Cunningham has 22 or more points in seven of his last 11 games, attempting 16.8 shots and averaging 21.5 points per game over that stretch. Cade has been efficient too in this 11-game sample, shooting 47.0 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. 

He’s also taken 17 or more shots in seven of those games, and if he reaches that number again, he should be in line to clear this prop.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.