Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Thunder, Bucks, Brandon Miller)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2).
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2). / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Fresh off of a 2-1 night in my NBA best bets, we have a massive slate to dive into for the final night of the NBA's In-Season Tournament Group Play.

There are plenty of teams fighting for wild card spots in each conference, which should make for plenty of competitive games on Tuesday. I broke down the implications for each game in today's odds breakdown in the NBA.

With so many important games tipping, I have three plays, including a spread, moneyline, and player prop.

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Here are the picks for Tuesday's NBA In-Season Tournament action:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 62-49-1 (+7.20 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 687-606-10 (+47.14 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Oklahoma City Thunder +3 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-175) vs. Miami Heat
  • Brandon Miller OVER 13.5 Points (-110)

Oklahoma City Thunder +3 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

There’s something about the Oklahoma City Thunder as road dogs that I just love. 

The public is on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight (over 56% percent of the bets at DraftKings Sportsbook), but I’m going to fade the Wolves – even though they are 5-1 ATS as home favorites. 

OKC is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road dog this season, and the team was 20-12-3 ATS in this spot last season. 

The Thunder should benefit in a big way from Jalen Williams returning, and OKC won’t have to face Jaden McDaniels – one of the best defensive wings in the league – on Tuesday night. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Thunder (No. 3 in the league in net rating) win this game outright, so I’ll gladly take them to cover this number.  

Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-175) vs. Miami Heat

I wish I got to this line earlier, but I still love the Milwaukee Bucks as road favorites against the Miami Heat. 

Miami is down both Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler in this game, and the team is just 1-2 straight up when Butler sits this season and 10-11 over the last two seasons. 

The Bucks are getting a gift here, and I don’t see Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and company taking this Miami team lightly after it knocked the Bucks out of the playoffs last season. Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS as a road favorite, but I have a hard time trusting a Miami team that lacks shot-creators with Butler and Herro out. 

We’re going to forget the points here and simply take the moneyline on what should be a win for Milwaukee. 

Brandon Miller OVER 13.5 Points (-110)

Charlotte Hornets rookie Brandon Miller has destroyed the New York Knicks this season. 

In the first meeting between these teams, Miller was injured in the first quarter (he did not return), but it didn’t stop him from scoring 11 points in 9:56 while shooting 5-for-6 from the field. 

He then turned in a career-high 29 points against the Knicks on Nov. 18, shooting 10-for-15 from the field in that game. 

Miller is coming off a 20-point game and he’s taken at least 11 shots in five straight – a solid floor for him in this prop. 

The rookie should see an uptick in his usage with LaMeloBall out, so I don’t mind taking the new Knicks killer to go OVER 13.5 points.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.