PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks at Southern Hills (Smith, Morikawa, Niemann, Koepka With Value)

We're one day away from the second major of the 2022 season as the PGA Championship kicks off tomorrow morning.

The team here at BetSided has you loaded with previews, trends, dark horse picks, fades, and much more, so be sure to check out the plethora of content before you lock your wagers in.

One of my favorite markets to target in golf tournaments is First Round Leader. We typically get inflated odds based on the volatility of a one-round bet, so there's plenty of value to be found. There's expected to be a lot of wind tomorrow that increases throughout the day, so we should ideally target players with earlier tee times to avoid the poor weather.

With that in mind, let's check out my favorite PGA Championship First Round Leader bets at Southern Hills tomorrow:

PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks

Cameron Smith (+3500)

Smith has an early tee-time (9:00 AM EST) and is a perfect course fit for Southern Hills. His exceptional iron play and strong scrambling stats will help him avoid trouble, and he's third on Tour in first round scoring average.

When eyeing someone who can catch fire in a round, we're looking for someone like Smith. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and can drain shots with the flat stick from anywhere, but it's his rankings in Strokes Gained: Approach (7th) and Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green (40th) that are particularly appealing. He'll consistently put himself in position to make birdies, as evidenced by leading the Tour in birdie average.

Smith's weakness is with his driver. He's 140th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee but with so much wind expected, that weakness should be mitigated as everyone will struggle with the driver.

Collin Morikawa (+3000)

My guy, my dude, my favorite athlete on the planet. Morikawa won this event two years ago and is fully capable of taking on the harsh winds despite an unfavorable 2:36 PM EST tee-time. As BetSided's Ben Heisler pointed out, Morikawa is perhaps the best course fit in the field.

The two-time major champion is 10th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and has significantly improved his putting to pair with being the best iron player in the world. While his poor ranking in Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green (192nd) is a cause for concern, I have enough faith in his ability to put it together and get off to a hot start.

Joaquin Niemann (+5000)

Niemann is my favorite FRL bet and one of my favorite outright bets on the weekend. His "A" game may be better than anyone's, and he checks every box I'm looking for. Niemann is second on Tour in first round scoring average and has no real weakness in his game. When all facets of his game are working together, as has often been the case lately, it's a beautiful thing to watch.

We know from Iain's trends piece that chipping will be important, and Niemann ranks 11th in Stokes Gained: Around-The-Green. He's 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green so as long as the flat stick doesn't let him down, I fully expect Niemann to be in contention.

Brooks Koepka (+5000)

I know Koepka has battled injuries, performed poorly, and has generally no business winning this tournament. BUT I. DON'T. CARE. This is Brooks at a major.

It's like a Bat signal goes out whenever it's major season and Brooksman shows up ready to roll. Bet Brooks and worry about defending the selection later. We're probably going to lose anyway, so why not back the best major player in the world?

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.