PGA Championship Power Rankings: Which Golfers are the Top Three Contenders at Valhalla?
By Todd Moser
Last week, Rory McIlroy gave us our seventh outright win in 19 weeks. It was a week where I really only liked two golfers, McIlroy and Max Homa. This week, I only like three.
It’s major week on the PGA Tour. The PGA Championship is being held at Valhalla in Louisville Kentucky, home of Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. For me, this week’s major quest truly comes down to a horse race amongst three big favorites, and here’s how I’m handicapping the race. I present to you a Win, Place, Show betting ticket.
PGA at Valhalla Win, Place, and Show Betting Ticket
WIN: Brooks Koepka +1400
I had Koepka on my Masters ticket, and he bombed miserably finishing T-45. Afterward, Brooks apologized to family and team for his poor performance and vowed not to repeat it. There’s almost nothing better than an angry Brooks at a major with a chip on his shoulder.
He seems to have found his form winning the last LIV event in Singapore. He already has three PGA titles to his credit, and in the past 10 years at the PGA, he ranks first in combined score, Top 5s, rounds 66 or lower, strokes gained tee to green, and strokes gained approaching the green. I think he sticks his nose in front with a closing birdie to win by a nose or in this case a stroke.
PLACE: Rory McIlroy +750
Talk about bad timing. I’m not sure why McIlroy waited until this week to file divorce papers. He couldn’t wait one week? I may have picked Rory to win, but I’m not a fan of personal distractions and the noise it creates.
However, one can’t argue about his form coming into this week’s PGA. His win with Shane Lowry in New Orleans seemed to relax him. Last week, he came from behind and blew by Xander Schauffele down the stretch to win easily.
This week, I think he gets out of the gate fast and grabs the early lead. If he can avoid the distractions, he just might be able to hold off Brooks and Scottie for the win.
SHOW: Scottie Scheffler +450
World number one is now a father, and he comes into this week with less sleep and preparation than he would like. And for those reasons, I place him third. He hasn’t played in a few weeks, so I think he gets off to a slow start out of the gate in round one and plays catch up for the rest of the tournament. But he has a great finishing kick and will challenge the leaders coming home. I think he loses by a nose at the finish.
Filling out our Superfecta PGA Championship Ticket
In order to make some money in this horse race, we are going to need some longer shots to fill out our betting slips, so here are the golfers to play underneath the above favorites.
Cam Smith +4000
We all know Brooks won the last LIV event in Singapore, but do you know who finished second? Yup, Mr. Smith. And like Brooks, he seems to bring out his best in majors. He finished sixth at The Masters in April. Perhaps most importantly, the guy can putt. He ranks first on LIV in putting average.
Sepp Straka +9000
Straka has quietly had good year. After finishing a respectable T-16 at The Masters, he has finished no worse than T-11 in his last three events and was amongst the leaders last week until closing with a final round 74 at Quail Hollow. I like his current form and long odds.
Jake Knapp +20000
Knapp is the new Zalatoris. He has all the tools and goes about his business coolly. For a tour winner this year to have 200:1 odds is a wager I think you have to risk. He lacks significant major experience having only played in this year’s Masters in which he finished an underwhelming T-55.
He had a chance to win the Byron Nelson just a few short weeks ago and has a complete game. Look for his name to be on the leaderboard.
Erik Van Rooyen +25000
EVR has also flown under the radar this year, and one certainly has to like his pot odds. He has three Top 10 finishes this year including a T-4 last week I Myrtle Beach.
He has not played well in the big tournaments, having missed the cut at The Players and finishing T-55 at The Masters. But the guy has a good all-around game. He ranks 13th in total strokes gained, 40th in total driving, 31st in GIR, and 19th in strokes gained putting. Not bad for a 250:1 longshot.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.