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Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 31 (Pay No Attention to Both Pitchers' Bad Records)

By Ben Heisler

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola, despite his 6-8 record, has been a top 3 pitcher in the National League this season.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola, despite his 6-8 record, has been a top 3 pitcher in the National League this season. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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The Pittsburgh Pirates had the Philadelphia Phillies right where they wanted them yesterday, and they, "let 'em off the hook."

Their inability to put Saturday's game away as a sizable home dog against the Philadelphia Phillies was not fun for your boy. Especially with a nice parlay payout that could have come along with it from yesterday's column.

Philadelphia ended up winning in extras 2-1, and now, the Phillies look to sweep away their in-state rival in the National League this afternoon.

Aaron Nola takes the bump for the Phillies against fellow right-hander J.T. Brubaker as Pittsburgh looks to stop a six-game losing streak.

Here's the latest odds for today's matchup via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Phillies -1.5 (-110)
  • Pirates +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Phillies -176
  • Pirates +161

Total:

  • 7 (OVER -120 | UNDER +100)

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

It's been a rough go for the Pirates of late. They're 2-8 in their last 10 games, despite their pitching being very good. Pittsburgh comes in with a 3.50 ERA in their last 10, but have been outscored by 11 runs in those games.

That's been the story for their starter J.T. Brubaker all season long. The 28-year old right-hander has been solid all season long with a 3.96 ERA and 3.84 Fielder Independent Pitching, or FIP through 19 starts. Yet he enters the matchup just 2-8 on the season, due to the Pirates only scoring 0-2 runs in 9 of his 10 starts for him. Brubaker is 0-7 in games where Pittsburgh scores 0-5 runs, despite an ERA of 3.15 in those 14 starts.

Meanwhile, Phillies ace Aaron Nola has dealt with a similar fortune. He's just 6-8 this season, but is fourth amongst National League pitchers in wins-above-replacement, or WAR this year. He comes in with a 3.32 ERA, but via Fangraphs, his expected ERA (xERA) is actually substantially lower at 2.77.

With both pitchers having solid to great years without the wins to show for it, I'll back the under through the first five innings this afternoon.

LEAN: F5 UNDER 3.5 (-120)

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