Purdue vs. UConn Final Score Prediction for NCAA Tournament National Championship

The National Championship has plenty of storylines, so let’s try and cash in on the big game. 

UConn will look to become the first team in nearly 20 years to go back-to-back in the NCAA Tournament, but in its way is the best singular player in the sport over the last two years in Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers. 

Let’s key in on the final score and possible game script on Monday night. How will Huskies approach slowing down Edey in the post, and can Purdue counter? 

Here’s how I see it. Below, you will find the odds for the National Championship game, betting insight and our final score prediction. 

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UConn vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

UConn vs. Purdue Betting Preview

From our betting preview, here’s how I view UConn’s prospects of slowing down Purdue. Click the link to find our full betting analysis for the big game.

The book is out on Purdue, in my opinion. Edey is a singular talent that hasn’t been seen in the sport, but the cracks are beginning to show in the Boilermakers armor. 

Tennessee was able to pressure the ball and turn Purdue over and generate points in transition, but couldn’t overcome Edey’s ability to get to the free throw line and cash in on midrange opportunities to get the win. 

NC State slowed down Purdue’s top three offense by pressuring the rock as well, sending timely digs in on Edey to cause loose balls but couldn’t score in the halfcourt to hold up offensively, scoring 50 points while shooting 26% from beyond the arc. However, it’s worth noting that Purdue had a 25% turnover percentage. 

Enter: UConn. 

The Huskies have the length in the backcourt to make Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer uncomfortable and deny initial actions while also wing defenders like Stephon Castle and Alex Karaban to throw more bodies at Edey in the post, who has to deal with another mammoth of a center in Clingan. 

UConn vs. Purdue Final Score Prediction

Purdue will run into a buzzsaw in UConn, who have far too many paths to victory while the Boilermakers are going to need another legendary game from Edey, mixed with timely 3-point shooting from the rest of the roster. 

The Huskies won’t need to send doubles at Edey, relying on its help-side defense to send timely pressure on the big man, but the team has the size to keep down the Boilermakers offense. I believe that Purdue will need to shoot at or above its season average to hold up offensively against a UConn team that is comfortable attacking Purdue’s drop coverage in the pick-and-roll and has the athleticism on the perimeter to create open shots far more easily. 

This total is expecting each team to flirt with the 70’s, but I believe the pace will be far more deliberate, UConn is outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo despite being the best offense in the country. The Huskies will run and attack off of misses, but its preferred method of attack is running through its halfcourt sets. 

I believe the Huskies get to its expectation, Purdue grades out as a “below average” defense in terms of defending cuts and off of screens, per Synergy Sports, and UConn has a bevy of motion sets that can get clean looks. 

Purdue will hang around, but the Huskies eventually pull away with sound defense and an overwhelming offense. 

Final Score Prediction: UConn 75, Purdue 66

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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