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Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Monday, June 6 (Weather Conditions Benefit Hitters in Cleveland)

By Ben Heisler

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Cal Quantrill is fired up after a strikeout for the Guardians to get out of the inning.
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Cal Quantrill is fired up after a strikeout for the Guardians to get out of the inning. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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The magic number for the Cleveland Guardians has been "5." They're 18-1 when scoring five or more runs so far this season.

Lucky for them, they host the Texas Rangers at Progressive Field for the start of a three-game series. Texas comes in with the 24th-worst pitching staff in baseball in wins-above-replacement, or WAR.

Both teams have been swinging a hot bat entering the series, outscoring their opponents by 32 total runs over each of their last 10 games.

Here are the latest odds for this evening over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Rangers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Rangers -1.5 (+150)
  • Guardians +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline:

  • Rangers +100
  • Guardians -110

Total:

  • 9 (OVER - 110 | UNDER -110)

Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

I'm backing the over in tonight's game for a few different reasons.

First, the weather may play a sizable factor in tonight's matchup, both on a positive and negative level. It's projected clear skies around first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET, but in the 9:00 p.m. hour, the precipitation levels are supposed to increase, getting to just under 50% by 10 p.m.

Where it really could weigh in is for both lineups. As the humidity is in the 50-60% range, with the wind blowing straight out at 13 mph. This is a sizable advantage to the bats; especially with two teams playing solid offensive baseball over the past week and a half.

Then there's the pitching matchup, as right-hander Jonathan Gray of the Rangers opposes Guardians right-hander Cal Quantrill. As Joe Summers points out in his MLB Parlay Picks of the Day, Gray has been a disaster on the road with a 5.40 ERA, plus the Rangers' bullpen continues to struggle late in games.

As for Quantrill, he's had a solid first few months of the season with a 3.52 ERA through nine starts, but his strikeout rate is way down, and his walk rate is up from a season ago. His expected ERA (xERA) is nearly 0.75 points higher (4.27) than his actual numbers, so there could be some regression coming, especially in hitter-friendly conditions.

I'd lean on the Guardians to get it done, but I feel much more comfortable in betting the over before the rain starts to fall in Cleveland.

LEAN: OVER 9 (-110)

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time on BetStamp HERE.

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