Reds vs. Giants Prediction and Pick for Friday, June 24 (Strong Pitching Matchup Gives Two Bets Value)

A pair of struggling teams square off tonight as the 38-31 San Francisco Giants host the 23-46 Cincinnati Reds at 10:15 PM EST.

Graham Ashcraft hope to halt the Reds' losing streak at seven after picking up the first loss of his career last week to the Brewers. Cincy won each of his first five starts though, and he's amassed an impressive 3-1 record and 3.51 ERA thus far.

The Giants turn to Alex Cobb, who I've been banging the drum for all season despite a 3-2 record and 5.62 ERA. Cobb's underlying metrics are incredible, but he hasn't achieved the success that typical comes as a result.

Can San Francisco win for just the second time in six games or will Cincy pull off the upset behind Ashcraft?

To answer those questions, here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we analyze this Reds vs Giants matchup:

Reds vs. Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Reds: +1.5 (-125)
• Giants: -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

• Reds: +185
• Giants: -205

Total:

• 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Reds vs Giants Prediction and Pick

Just as they've been all year, Alex Cobb's box score stats pale in comparison to his advanced metrics, which paint him as one of the best starters in MLB. His 2.25 expected ERA leads all qualified starters, but his 5.62 ERA is a stain on the Giants' rotation.

It's almost unbelievable how unlucky he's been this season. San Francisco's horrific defense hasn't helped matters, but at some point the guy has to catch a break. Just look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:

See, Cobb is really good! But so is Graham Ashcraft, whom I believe in despite consecutive underwhelming starts. He's in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 91st in barrel percentage, and 87th in walk rate.

Ashcraft held the Giants scoreless in 6.1 innings in his second career start and I expect him to find success again today.

Because I believe in both starters, I see value on the first five innings under 4.0 (-120). Neither bullpen can be trusted, but Cobb and Ashcraft can be. The under is 11-3-3 in the Giants' last 17 games and 9-4 in the Reds' previous 13 as road underdogs, so there's a precedent for low-scoring games as well.

But I can't help but take a shot on the Reds as well. San Francisco is only 5-7 in their last 12 as home favorites while Cincy has won three of four as road underdogs and are 5-1 in Ashcraft's starts. This number is just too big for a Giants team that seems to be inventing ways to lose with their terrible defense and bullpen.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.0 (-120) and Reds (+185)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.