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Is Rest vs. Rust in NHL Playoffs A Predictive Trend for Stanley Cup Final? (How Teams Play Following a Sweep)

By Reed Wallach

Jun 6, 2022; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon (29) scores
Jun 6, 2022; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon (29) scores / Walter Tychnowicz-USA TODAY Sports
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The Stanley Cup Finals gets started on Wednesday with some narratives at work.

It's an age old question in hockey. Does the team coming off a sweep have the momentum after a dominant series? Or, does the team that plays in a long series enter the next in better form? We'll have a better idea in tonight's start of the Stanley Cup Final between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Avs are off a sweep of the Edmonton Oilers, their second sweep of the postseason, and have been off for a staggering eight days. They face the two-time defending champs in the Lightning, who won Game 6 at home against the New York Rangers on Saturday, rattling off four straight victories to keep their hopes of a dynasty alive.

Dating back to 2000, teams that swept in the prior round are 11-13 in the following series when the opponent played at least six games (I didn't include the 2020 playoffs due to different circumstances from COVID-19). Two of those sweeps include the Avalanche and Lightning from this season.

So, there isn't a tried-and-true formula to the fact that teams off a longer layoff struggle in the following series, but the team off the sweep does do worse over the past 20 years. This goes against conventional wisdom that teams use the extra time to get healthy, rest up and get ready for the next series. Rather, in hockey, the team that played more recently tends to carry momentum over early into a series and have more of an advantage than one would think.

Again, it's not a massive edge, but typically the team off a sweep is the projected better team heading into the series, yet they lose more than win.

Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Odds

  • Avalanche: -190
  • Lightning: +155

The Avs are considerable favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook against the two time defending champions, but Tampa Bay may be coming in with a head of steam off of their recent success against the New York Rangers.

For more, check out our Game 1 preview, betting trends and our Stanley Cup episode of Rookie vs. Vet below!

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