Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 10 Picks for Every Game

We're officially halfway through The Road to 272 Bets. We're at the exactly halfway mark of the NFL season. We've watched and bet on nine weeks of NFL football which consisted of 136 games.

Thankfully, we're sitting with a profit through the first half of the season. We finished 8-6 (+1.32 units) in Week 9 which brings our season record to 70-64-2 (+2.62 units).

Let's keep the good times rolling and try to beat our first half record in the second half of the season.

If you want to know the rules I'm following for this, I broke them down in the Week 1 edition of this article. Also, you can look back at my full record so far this season over at Betstamp.

By the way, if you bet on the NFL one of the easiest and best ways to be profitable is to have an account at several different sportsbooks. That way, you can make sure you get the best odds available on every game you wager on.

If you don't already have an account at FanDuel Sportsbook, now is a great time to sign up because for a limited time, new users will receive $150 in bonus bets and three months off NBA League Pass when they place their first $5 bet. All you have to do is click the link below to sign up for an account to take advantage of this offer.

There are four teams on a bye this week, so we have 14 total games to bet on. The teams on bye are as follows:

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Los Angeles Rams
• Miami Dolphins
• Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Week 10 Best Bets for Every Game

Bears -3.5 (-108) vs. Panthers

The thought of laying 3.5 points on this Bears team in the first few weeks of the season never would have crossed my mind, but they've played better in recent games and now they have a great stylistic matchup against a horrid Panthers squad.

The biggest factor when handicapping games involving the Panthers is whether or not the team they're playing against can run the football. If they can't, they have a chance to slow them down as we saw them do against the Texans two weeks ago. If they can run the ball effectively, the Panthers are in trouble.

The Panthers rank dead last in opponent EPA per rush and are allowing teams to average 4.4 yards per carry against them. Now, they face a Bears team whose strength is exactly that. They're fourth in the NFL in EPA per rush and average 4.6 yards per carry, the sixth best mark in the league.

It's also worth noting the Bears rank ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play over their last three games, while the Panthers have remained in the basement of the league in that stat.

Colts -1 (-110) vs. Patriots

The last NFL game in Europe will take place in Germany on Sunday morning and only real football fans and bettors will be awake at 9:30 a.m. EST to watch this game between two teams with losing records in the AFC.

I'm a little bit higher on the Colts than most people, so I'm going to lay the point on them in this game. They're 15th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at an even 0.0, while the Patriots are 22nd at -0.3.

I also just can't bring myself to bet on the Patriots with Kendrick Bourne sidelined for the rest of the season. Demario Douglas has been a nice surprise, but they still don't have any big weapons to use to move the ball down the field. As a result, they're 30th in the league in EPA/Play.

With the point spread set at a single point, I'll take the Colts.

49ers -3 (-110) at Jaguars

Two teams who are coming off their respective bye weeks will face-off in Week 10 action, and I think this is a classic case of buy low and sell high. The 49ers are likely at the lowest point they'll be all season after three-straight losses, while the Jaguars are likely at the highest point they'll be all season after five-straight wins.

I don't doubt the Jaguars defense is good enough to keep them in this game, but their offense has been as good as people think. They're 21st in the league in EPA/Play, 25th in third down conversion rate, and 26th in red zone touchdown rate. They can't afford to not convert third downs and be kept to field goals in the red zone against this 49ers team.

Don't let the interceptions Brock Purdy has thrown lately make you think he's been playing poorly. Overall, he still leads all starting QBs in the NFL in Adjusted EPA per Play. It's time for San Francisco to re-establish itself as a true Super Bowl contender.

Buccaneers -1.5 (-105) vs. Titans

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can't run the football, still ranking as the worst run team in the NFL. That makes them a relatively easy team to handicap. When they face a team that has a great secondary, bet against them because they have no run game to turn to. When they face a team with a weak secondary, bet on them because a lack of run game won't hurt them.

So, let's see how the Titans stack up. Tennessee ranks 25th in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 6.9 yards per throw while also ranking 26th in opponent EPA per dropback and 28th in opponent dropback success rate. Yeah, I think it's fair to say the Buccaneers offense is going to be just fine.

Mike Vrabel has yet to announce who will start at quarterback for the Titans this week, but it may not matter. 37.91% of their offensive yards come on the ground, the eighth-highest mark in the league, while the strength of the Bucs defense is their ability to stop the run.

The Bucs are favorites of just 1.5 points at home in a game they have the stylistic advantage in. Sign me up.

Ravens -6 (-105) vs. Browns

Give me more of this Baltimore Ravens team, which on a weekly basis continues to prove to be one of the best teams in the NFL. Sure, the Browns have a great defense, but so do the Ravens. Both defensive units wash each other out, so which offense has the advantage? The answer is the Ravens by a mile.

These two teams have already played once this season and while I'm not a fan of pointing to the results of one game as proof of what would happen in a rematch, it's worth noting the Ravens outgained them 5.4 yards per play to 2.6 on way to a 28-3 in Cleveland.

The Browns offense is one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 30th in yards per play (4.6) and 28th in EPA/Play. One week after shutting out the Cardinals, the Browns themselves may get shut out on Sunday.

I have no problem laying the six points with the Ravens.

Texans vs. Bengals OVER 46.5 (-110)

This is a game between two teams who I bet the OVER in their respective games last week. The Buccaneers and Texans hit the OVER with ease and while we fell short on the OVER on Sunday Night Football between the Bills and Bengals, it was right there before both offenses sputtered in the second half.

My point is, I'm taking the OVER in this meeting between them on Sunday. There is once again no doubt the Bengals offense is back, but I'm still not ready to buy in on them as a team until I can see their defense step up. They're 27th in both opponent yards per pass attempt and opponent dropback success rate. That bodes well for the eventual rookie of the year, CJ Stroud.

Meanwhile the Texans pass defense has also had some struggles, ranking 23rd in opponent yards per pass attempt and 22nd in opponent dropback success rate. That means Joe Burrow should be set up for yet another big game.

Let's sit back and root for points in what should be a fun game between two exciting quarterbacks.

Saints -2.5 (-110) at Vikings

I know Josh Dobbs is the feel-good story in the NFL right now and you're going to be tempted to bet on the Vikings after last week's improbable win against the Falcons, but let's pump the brakes. Joshua Dobbs is still 27th in the NFL in adjusted EPA/Play, which ranks right below Desmond Ridder and Jimmy Garoppolo who come in at 25th and 26th. Last week's win for the Vikings was more about the terrible play by the Falcons than the good play by Dobbs and company.

Now, Dobbs has to face a Saints secondary that's eighth in dropback EPA, fourth in dropback success rate, and fifth in opponent yards per pass attempt. It's going to be too tough a challenge for him to overcome.

The Saints' offense has finally found its stride. It took a while to get there, but the offense is rolling now and has gained 5.7 yards per play over their last three games, which is the seventh-best mark in the NFL over that span.

I love the Saints in this one.

Packers +3 (-110) at Steelers

I refuse to stop betting against the Steelers. I don't care that they continue to find ways to win and cover spreads, I have to stick to the process and continue to fade them. They are the most fraudulent team in the NFL and it's shocking how they somehow find ways to win games.

Heading into Week 10, they rank 27th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.9. The Packers, while ugly offensively, has been carried by their defense and comes in at 14th in Net Yards per Play at +0.1.

Give me the Packers to cover as field goal underdogs, and I'm sure I'll once again be wrong about the Steelers and lose this bet.

Falcons -108 at Cardinals

OK, come on now. Have the Falcons looked bad at times? Yes. Is Arthur Smith inexplicably obsessed with giving Jonnu Smith the ball at all costs? Yes. Do they have anyone who can play the position of quarterback at a competent level? No.

But, with all of that being said, the sportsbooks are going to set them as a pick'em against a Cardinals team that's seemingly trying to do everything they can to lose? Come on now.

This line is likely set this way assuming Kyler Murray is going to play, but we've seen what happens when quarterbacks re-join their teams halfway through a season. It can be ugly. It's tough to go from the couch to playing at the NFL level, especially for a player like Murray who has been outed as someone who doesn't watch film.

At the end of the day, the Falcons are still ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.3. They aren't a terrible team, they've just mismanaged key moments resulting in losing winnable games. I refuse to think the Cardinals can beat them.

Lions -1.5 (-110) vs. Chargers

The Chargers are coming off two big wins against the Bears and Jets, but let's not forget this team has a ton of issues defensively that are exploited when they play good teams. They're one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to opponent yards per pass attempt, which is going to be a big issue for them against a stout Lions pass attack coming off a bye.

The offenses for these two teams are extremely comparable, but the Lions defense is league's above the Chargers' this year. Detroit comes in at 7th in opponent EPA per play while the Chargers are 29th. That's going to prove to be the difference maker in this one.

Cowboys -15.5 (-110) vs. Giants

There isn't a team in the NFL this season that's more of a dumpster fire than the New York Giants and Tommy DeVito might be the worst quarterback to ever take a snap at the professional level. I don't care how big this point spread is. The Cowboys could be -35 and I'd probable still take them.

The Giants offense is dead last in virtually every single offensive metrics including yards per play and EPA per play. They're also dead last in overall Net Yards per Play at -1.5. It's ugly stuff in New York.

Meanwhile, I have to give the Cowboys credit. Despite losing to the Eagles, they've looked much better in recent weeks and are actually second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+1.2) over each team's last three games.

I don't see how this game results in anything but a rout.

Seahawks -6 (-115) vs. Commanders

Despite the loss to the Ravens last week, I'm still a big believer in this Seahawks team and I think they have a chance to torch this Commanders' defense. Washington ranks 29th in opponent Dropback EPA and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.2 yards per throw.

Despite being trounced by the Ravens, the Seahawks are still eighth in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.3, while Washington ranks 25th at -0.6.

I don't see what the Commanders offer to be able to hang with the Seahawks in Seattle.

Raiders +110 vs. Jets

I know I said a couple of weeks ago I'd never bet on the Raiders again, but they may truly be a different team without Josh McDaniels there. It seems like not only was he a bad coach, but the players in that locker room truly hated him, celebrating with cigars and dancing after their win against the Giants in Week 9.

Overall, the Raiders stats aren't all that bad, and what i mean by that is they aren't a bottom five team. They're 24th in Net Yards per Play, 22nd in EPA/Play, and 19th in opponent EPA/Play.

Yes, the Jets defense is good, but that's not going to matter if they can't score any points because their offense is one of the worst in the NFL.

It's a Toilet Bowl on Sunday Night Football. I'll take the Raiders to get the win at home as slight underdogs.

Broncos vs. Bills OVER 46.5 (-110)

We missed on the OVER last week between the Bills and Bengals, but this is another matchup between two good offenses and two bad defenses. That's right, I don't think the Broncos offense is as bad as people think. They're 12th in the NFL in yards per play and if you take out plays involving turnovers, they're 11th in EPA per play. The Bills offense is third in both of those stats.

Then there's the defenses. The Broncos are dead last in opponent EPA/Play by a mile and none of their other metrics are good either. Somehow, they managed to slow down the Chiefs offense in both of their games against Kansas City, but have been absolutely torched in every other outing.

Let's sit back and root for points on Monday Night Football.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!