Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 12 Picks for Every Game
The best week of the NFL regular season is upon us. It's time for Thanksgiving football!
Not only that, but for the first time we're also treated to a game on Black Friday, that means we have NFL football to watch and bet on for four of the five days between Thursday and Monday. What a treat!
If you don't already know, I'm placing one bet on all 272 regular season games this year. Last week, we finished 7-7 (-0.39 units), which brings our season-date record to 84-78-2 (+1.83 units).
If you want to know the rules I'm following for this, I broke them down in the Week 1 edition of this article. Also, you can look back at my full record so far this season over at Betstamp.
I always preach that one of the best ways to win money betting on the NFL is by making sure you get the best odds possible. The easiest way to do that is to have an account at several different sportsbooks. If you don't already have an account at Bet365, now is the time to sign up for one! if you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager!
There are no teams on a bye this week, so we have a full 16 game slate to bet on. Let's dive into it.
NFL Week 12 Best Bets for Every Game
Thanksgiving Day Picks
Packers vs. Lions prediction
I was close to nailing the Bears on the moneyline last week against the Lions, and while they ended up completing the comeback for the win, they did showcase the exact red flags I talked about. Their defense is subpar at best, ranking 16th in opponent EPA/Play, 24th in opponent success rate, and 16th in opponent yards per play.
Their offense is clearly enough to still lead them to wins even when their defense doesn't hold up their end of the bargain, but covering spreads of higher than a touchdown is a different story.
Meanwhile, I think the Packers are better than their record indicates. They're 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.1 and ninth in Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.7). What should concern Lions fans the most is they rank ninth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.2) as their secondary has been stingy.
I set the Lions as a 6.5-point favorite so we're getting a point of value on this line that crosses the key numbers of seven. Give me the Packers and the points.
Pick: Packers +7.5 (-110)
Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction
Why do I feel like the Cowboys play one of the worst teams in the NFL on a weekly basis? For some reason, their schedule is completely loaded at the back end of it as after their game against the Commanders this week, they have a stretch of games against the Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions.
I claimed the Cowboys were fraudulent early in the year but they have impressed me lately, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +2.5 over their last three games, and they know how to beat up on bad teams, which is exactly what the Commanders are. I've been much lower on the Commanders than most people have been all season and I'm not about to change my mind now.
Their defense is atrocious, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent yards per play. Most notably, they're 30th in opponent EPA per dropback and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt. This Cowboys offense is going to be able to carve them up.
I'll take Dallas to cover the double-digit spread on Thanksgiving.
Pick: Cowboys -10.5 (-112)
49ers vs. Seahawks prediction
The 49ers are officially back and we can put that midseason slump out of our minds. For what it's worth, I think this is the best team in the NFL. Their offense leads the NFL in EPA/Play and their defense is fifth in opponent EPA/Play. The Cowboys are the only other team that's in the top five in both of those stats.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been trending in the exact opposite direction. They're 25th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play over their last three games at -0.7 and this seems to be a trend for the Seahawks the past couple of years, especially last season when they went 3-5 down the stretch to limp into the playoffs.
It's not just their offense either, their defense has also allowed 5.8 yards per play over their last three games and their run defense, which looked elite early the season, now looks abysmal.
Give me the 49ers to roll over the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night.
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-110)
Black Friday Pick
Dolphins vs. Jets prediction
I wish I had locked in this bet on Monday afternoon when it was announced Tim Boyle will start over Zach Wilson. The announcement moved the line from -7.5 in favor of the Dolphins to -9.5. Still, I won't hesitate to lay the points.
This game is against arguably the best offense in the NFL and the worst. Miami leads the NFL in yards per play at 7.0 and rank second in EPA/Play. The Jets rank 29th in yards per play (4.6) and dead last in EPA/Play.
Spoiler alert: Tim Boyle isn't about to make the worst offense in football any better.
Even with the Jets elite defense, they may need to hold the Dolphins to fewer than 13 points if they want to cover this game, and I don't think they'll be able to do that.
Pick: Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
NFL Sunday Picks
Patriots vs. Giants prediction
Don't let the Giants' Week 10 win against the Commanders fool you, this team stinks and Tommy DeVito is not a good quarterback. Also, if there's one thing that time that I'm still going to trust Bill Belichick, it's against a rookie quarterback off a bye week.
The Patriots have also done a great job stopping the run this season, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per rush, second in opponent rush success rate, and second in opponent yards per carry. If New England can shut down the Giants run game, that means all they're going to have to win on the arm of Tommy DeVito. That's less than ideal.
I'll take the Patriots to remind everyone just how bad this Giants team is.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-102)
Buccaneers vs. Colts prediction
I don't think enough people recognize how bad the Buccaneers defense is, especially against the pass. They're 24th in opponent dropback success rate, 25th in opponent dropback EPA, and 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.4).
As a whole, this Buccaneers team has been one of the worst in the NFL over their past few games, ranking 31st in Net Yards per Play over their last three, only the Giants have been worse.
Call me naive, but I still believe in this Colts offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, as long as he can limit the turnovers. I think there's some value in backing the Colts at home off their bye week as long as the spread stays under the magic number of three.
Pick: Colts -2.5 (-110)
Saints vs. Falcons prediction
Nothing hurts my soul more than picking the New Orleans 'Aints against my Dirty Birds, but it has to be done here. The Falcons might stink. Even though some of their overall metrics aren't terrible, like their 13th ranking in Net Yards per Play, they find ways to shoot themselves in the foot on a weekly basis.
Their offense is predictable and uninspired and they refuse to give their best players the football, instead opting to get the ball in their backup tight end's hands as many time as possible.
Now, they have to face an elite Saints defense that ranks in the top six in opponent EPA/Play and opponent success rate. Desmond Ridder and company are going to be overwhelmed and the Saints offense will do enough to get the job done.
I'll happily be wrong about this game, but I don't think I will be. Saints will establish themselves as the leaders in the NFC South.
Pick: Saints -102
Panthers vs. Titans prediction
I understand the Panthers and Titans offenses aren't exactly elite, but totals in the mid-30s should be reserved for games that feature at least one top-tier defense and this game certainly does not have that.
The Panthers' defense is the worst run defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in opponent EPA per rush and opponent rush success rate, now they take on the Titans who we all know love to run the football and largely do it successfully.
Then there's the Titans defense that's 31st in the NFL in opponent EPA/Play and 22nd in opponent success rate.
The two offenses in this game should have no problem scoring enough for this total to go OVER.
Pick: OVER 37 (-110)
Steelers vs. Bengals prediction
The Cincinnati Bengals were already a bad team from a metrics standpoint when they head Joe Burrow, now Jake Browning takes over and I think we're going to see some extremely ugly football from them in the coming weeks.
Overall, they're 31st in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.3 and that's largely due to their defense. Their defense currently ranks 25th in opponent EPA/Play, 30th in opponent success rate, and 31st in opponent yards per play.
If you have Joe Burrow as your quarterback, you can get away with a bad defense at times. Now, with a backup QB, it's going to be a disaster.
Listen, I'm not a Steelers guy. I've been adamant they're the most fraudulent team in the NFL, but even I will back them as a 1.5-point favorite on the road against this Bengals team.
Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-102)
Texans vs. Jaguars prediction
The Jaguars might be the most difficult team to handicap in the NFL this season. Every team goes through ups and downs when it comes to winning and losing games, but I don't think there's another team that has had more of a rollercoaster season from a metrics standpoint than the Jaguars. One week, they look like AFC contenders, the next week they look like a bunch of frauds.
Overall, they're 23rd in the league in Net Yards per Play at -0.4 and now they have to hit the road to take on a Texans team that already beat them 37-17 earlier this season. It wasn't just the score either, the Texans outgained them 6.5 yards per play to 5.9.
This Texans team is a legitimate good team but I don't know if I can say the same about the Jaguars. I'll back Houston as a short home underdog.
Pick: Texans +105
Rams vs. Cardinals prediction
I've been betting on the Rams a ton this season, but I think this is the perfect spot for an OVER bet. The Los Angeles receiving core should be able to torch this Cardinals defense that is 29th in opponent dropback EPA, 31st in dropback success rate, and 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt. I have no doubt the Rams can do enough to contribute to this OVER.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals' offense looks like a completely different unit with Kyler Murray at quarterback and the Rams defense continues to be a subpar unit, ranking the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every metric.
Let's set back and root for points in this NFC West showdown.
Pick: OVER 44.5 (-110)
Browns vs. Broncos prediction
I know Dorian Thompson-Robinson is going to be back at quarterback for the Browns, but I simply can't lay points on the Broncos' offense having to face this Cleveland defense. We have seen what Cleveland can do when taking on bad offenses, holding three teams to three points or fewer this season.
Russell Wilson has played better than people think this season, but he might just be the most sackable quarterback in the league and the Browns secondary may be the best in the NFL. With the total set at 35.5, I think we all know what kind of a game this is going to be.
I'll take the team getting the points in what will likely be a ugly defensive slugfest.
Pick: Browns +2.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Eagles prediction
I don't care that the Eagles beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, I stand by my take that they're a good but not great football team this year. This game is a fascinating matchup between a team in the Bills whose record is way worse than it should be when you look at their metrics and an Eagles team whose record is way better than it should be when you look at their metrics.
For example, the Bills are sixth in Net Yards per Play (+0.8), third in EPA per play, and 12th in opponent EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 11th in Net Yards per Play, fifth in EPA per play, and 19th in opponent EPA per play.
If we did a blind resume between these two teams, didn't tell you which was which but showed you each of their analytics and metrics, I bet you'd point to the Bills as being the better team. I'm going to back that claim up with a bet on they moneyline in Week 12.
Pick: Bills +160
Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction
The Chiefs offense has struggled this season, there's no doubt about that. Despite posting good metrics, ill-timed turnovers and drops have kept them from living up to their potential. Now is the time for a bounce-back spot against their divisional rivals.
The Raiders defense has been a decent unit this season, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. I have no faith in an offense that's 28th in EPA per Play and 27th in yards per play to be able to move the ball against this stout Chiefs defense.
The only way to move the ball against the Chiefs' defense is by running it and the Raiders are dead last in Rush EPA and 31st in yards per carry.
Chiefs win big.
Pick: Chiefs -9 (-110)
Ravens vs. Chargers prediction
I don't care how many weapons the Chargers have on offense, their defense is truly atrocious. They rank 28th in both opponent EPA/Play and opponent success rate while also ranking 29th in opponent yards per play, giving up 5.8 yards per snap.
The Ravens defense, on the other hand, ranks first in opponent yards per play (4.2), second in opponent EPA, and fifth in opponent success rate. Justin Herbert and company are in for a long night while Lamar Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants against the Chargers.
It's also worth noting the Ravens have been fantastic on the road this season, leading the NFL in Net Yards per Play in that spot. I've been betting on Baltimore all season and I won't stop now.
Pick: Ravens -4 (-110)
Monday Night Football pick
Bears vs. Vikings prediction
Hats off to the Chicago Bears, they've improved from being a dumpster fire at the start of the season to a below-average team. Over their last three games, they're 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.1, which also happens to be where the Vikings sit in that statistic since acquiring Joshua Dobbs.
Their run defense remains elite, ranking inside the top five in each run defense category, so for the Vikings to win and cover this game they need Joshua Dobbs to do with his arm and I don't know if he can do that. Call me a hater, but I still think Dobbs is an average quarterback at best.
I'll gladly take the 3.5 points with the Bears on Monday night.
Pick: Bears +3.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!