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Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 7 Picks for Every Game

The Road to 272 Bets continues as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bet for every single NFL Week 7 game.

By Iain MacMillan

Oct 1, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up before a
Oct 1, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up before a / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
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Make it three-straight profitable weeks for the Road to 272 Bets!

If you aren't aware, I'm betting on every single NFL regular season game. 272 games, 272 bets. It's the fourth time I've done this and we're off to a solid start through the first six weeks in 2023. We finished 8-7 (+0.49 units) this week, which brings us to 49-42-2 (+4.88 units) on the season.

As always, you can check out the rules for the Road to 272 Bets in the Week 1 edition of the article here. You can also see my verified record for the season so far on my BetStamp account here.

If you want to tail any of these bets this week, I'd recommend doing so at DraftKings Sportsbook because, for a limited time, new users will receive $200 in bonus bets AND plenty of no sweat single game parlays when they use the link below to sign up and place their first $5 wager.

Remember, there are six teams on a bye week so we have just 13 games to wager on this week. The following teams don't play in Week 7:

  • Carolina Panthers
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Houston Texans
  • New York Jets
  • Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 7 Best Bets for Every Game

Saints -1 (-110) vs. Jaguars

The Saints opened as 1-point favorites, but with reports coming out on Monday that Trevor Lawrence has a chance to miss the game due to a knee injury, the line has escalated to -3 in favor of the Saints. If you like New Orleans, I still like them at this number and if Lawrence is ruled out, I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints close as a favorite of somewhere around -4.5.

I'm selling on the Jaguars. Yes, they've won three-straight games but they were outgained in yards per play in all three of those wins. Being outgained by your opponents on a weekly basis isn't a sustainable recipe for success.

In fact, the Jaguars are 26th in the NFL in net yards per play at -0.6. That's not good to say the least.

The Saints have had issues of their own, specifically on the offensive side of the football, but their defense is the superior unit and I think it's only a matter of time before they find their offensive groove. They have too many playmakers to continue this poor level of play.

Browns vs. Colts UNDER 39.5 (-110)

As dominant of an offense the Miami Dolphins have had this season, the Browns have had an equally dominant defense and not as many people are talking about it. If you look at opponent EPA/play, it's the Browns in first at -0.249. The next closest is the Ravens at -0.161. That's a massive gap between the best and second best defense in that metric.

If you want to look at more simple numbers, here's where the Browns rank:

  • Opponent yards per play: 1st (3.8)
  • Opponent yards per carry: 4th (3.5)
  • Opponent yards per pass attempt: 2nd (4.6)
  • Opponent third down conversion rate: 1st (23.08%)

But, as dominant as their defense is, I have no faith in their offense to win as favorites. The Browns' offense this season is 28th in yards per play (4.5) and 30th in EPA/play (-.180).

So, instead of trying to determine if we should bet on or against the Browns, the obvious thing to do is just take the UNDER in their games.

Bills -8.5 (-110) at Patriots

My gut wants me to buy low on the Patriots and take them to cover this spread at home against the Bills, but I just don't think I can do that after looking at their metrics.

According to EPA/play, they're the worst offense in the NFL at -0.225. Meanwhile, the Bills offense ranks third at 0.158.

If you bet on the Patriots, you're going to do hope their defense can keep the Bills offense in check, but a lot of the advanced metrics also don't love the Patriots defense, like opponent EPA/play where they rank just 15th compared to the Bills defense coming in at eighth.

Listen, I love to make the ugly bets, but I need at least some kind of numbers to support the decision, and as hard as I looked, I can't find anything to support New England being able to keep pace with Buffalo in this game.

I'll lay the points with the Bills.

Raiders vs. Bears OVER 37.5 (-105)

I get that the offense of these two teams aren't great, and Justin Fields being listed as "doubtful" for the game isn't a great sign, but totals in the 30s should be reserved for teams with good defenses and neither of these two squads qualify for that.

The Raiders enter Week 7 ranking 25th in opponent EPA/play and the Bears are second last to only the Broncos in that stat. They're also 17th and 29th in opponent yards per play, respectively. A battle between two backup quarterbacks could be a possibility on Sunday, but that won't matter.

We could have a game between two clones of Nathan Peterman and I'd still bet the OVER. These defenses stink.

Commanders -2 (-108) at Giants

I find myself stuck in a similar situation with a handful of teams, the Giants being one of them. I love the concept of "buying low" on teams that have looked bad recently, but when a team has metrics as bad as the Giants, I just can't pull the trigger.

Despite a somewhat impressive defensive performance against the Bills on Sunday Night Football, they're still dead last by a mile in Net Yards per Play at -2. While the Commanders' defense hasn't been great as a whole, their one strong suit has been their pass rush. They rank 11th in the league in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 8.41% of their drop backs. That's bad news for a Giants team that's allowing 5.5 sacks per game.

I'll take the Commanders to win and cover the short spread.

Falcons +2.5 (-106) at Buccaneers

For some reason, people are viewing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a solid football team right now, despite being labelled one of the worst teams in the league before the season and suffering two ugly losses to the Eagles and Lions.

The Falcons, who have had an up and down year, outrank the Buccaneers in Net Yards per Play by a significant margin, coming in at 12th (+0.3) compared to the Bucs at 23rd (-0.3). I would argue the Falcons have played better than their record, but some ill-timed turnovers and poor clock management cost them in their losses.

The Buccaneers have had zero success running the football in 2023, ranking dead last in yards per carry (3.0). That means for them to win games, they have to do it on the shoulders of Baker Mayfield, which is going to be tough for them to do against good defenses. Let's be honest, the Falcons defense has been an above-average unit this season and they have what it takes to slow down Mayfield.

I'll take the 2.5 points with Atlanta in what I predict to be a game that will likely come down to the wire.

Ravens -3 (-110) vs. Lions

It's time to sell high on the Detroit Lions. Some people are starting to call them the best team in the NFC which I think is a bit of a stretch. They're clearly the third or fourth-best team, but let's pump the breaks on them just a little bit.

They did enough to beat the Chiefs in Week 1, lost to the Seahawks in Week 2, then recorded wins against the Falcons, Packers, Panthers, and Buccaneers. They haven't exactly faced a killers row of teams over the last four weeks.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are putting up great performances from a metrics standpoint, but are more than due for a big statement win. Their third in the NFL in net yards per play (+1.1) and their defense has been second to only the Browns.

They're allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt this season (4.5), which means Jared Goff has a tough test ahead of him. It doesn't help that the Lions are on the road in this game for the second straight week.

I'll lay the points with the Ravens.

Seahawks -7.5 (-110) vs. Cardinals

Remember when the Cardinals looked like a solid football team the first few weeks, including upsetting the Cowboys as huge underdogs? Yeah, that might've been a farce.

Their metrics are starting to fall off a cliff the past two weeks, and on top of that, the Seahawks are a stylistic nightmare for the Cardinals.

First of all, 42.51% of the offensive yards gained by the Cardinals comes on the ground, which is the third highest rate in the league. They're also second in the NFL in yards per carry, averaging 5.3 yards per rush. Clearly, running the football as a huge key to their success. Unfortunately for them, they now have to face the best run defense in the league. The Seahawks are keeping teams to averaging a measly 3.2 yards per rush.

The biggest weakness for the Cardinals defense is their secondary, ranking 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.3 yards per throw this season and 8.4 yards per throw over their last three games. Now, they face a Seattle offense that thrives in the pass game, rankings inside the top 10 in EPA/dropback and yards per pass attempt.

This has all the makings of a blowout.

Steelers vs. Rams OVER 43 (-110)

The Steelers are a bit of a confusing team to be, especially on defense. Their straight-forward numbers are bad, like ranking 24th in opponent yards per play (5.6), but yet the advanced metrics, like opponent EPA/Play, have them as a top 10 defense.

So, I'm going to stick with what I do know it's that the Rams should be an OVER bettors dream. Their offense has been the strength of their team, ranking seventh in the NFL in EPA/Play and eighth in yards per play. Meanwhile, their defense has cost them at times, and teams have been able to move the ball against them.

If the Steelers are ever going to have a strong offensive game, it's going to be when Mike Tomlin and company have a BYE week to prepare.

I think the spread is set at the right number for this game, but the total is a couple of points too low. For that reason, I'll take the OVER.

Packers -1 (-110) at Broncos

Remember earlier when I said there were a couple of bad times I wish I could "buy low" on? The Broncos are one of those teams. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers just aren't giving me that opportunity as I truly can't justify betting on them as just a 1.5-point underdog.

Yes, they kept the Chiefs offense in check to an extent last week, but it was more because of Kansas City's poor red zone offense. Overall, the Chiefs still gained 5.6 yards per play against them.

Until I see the Broncos defense have an actual good performance, I can't back them. They're dead last in the NFL in just about every single defensive metric you look at.

Jordan Love has held the Packers back at times this season, but now he gets to face the worse secondary in the NFL. I have no problem laying a single point on them.

Chargers +210 vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs have been playing with fire the past few weeks, managing to squeak by opponents late in games. That may come back to haunt them against a Chargers offense that has been one of the best in the NFL through the first six weeks.

The Chargers defense has made huge improvements after their first few games of the season, and now they may be in a good spot to slow down the Mahomes-led offense.

It's a bold call, but I think Herbert and company get the job done and get their season back on track after a heartbreaking loss on Monday Night Football to the Cowboys.

Dolphins vs. Eagles OVER 52 (-110)

The Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles are two teams that are quite similar this year. Their offenses are far superior to their defenses, even Philadelphia, who had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season, has failed to live up to the expectations it set for itself.

You don't need me to tell you the Dolphins are on a historic pace and they're in a league of themselves when it comes to the metrics. They're averaging 2.0 more yards per play than the next best offense and their also first in EPA/Play by a mile. Meanwhile, the Eagles are ninth in yards per play and eighth in EPA/Play.

Then, there's the defenses for both teams. The Eagles are 11th in opponent yards per play and 17th in opponent EPA/Play, while the Dolphins are 19th in opponent yards per play and 23rd in opponent EPA/Play.

That's a lot of words to say that the bet to make on Sunday Night Football is the OVER. I think we're in for an offensive shootout of a game.

Vikings +7 (-110) vs. 49ers

Week after week I say the same thing. I'm falling victim to betting on the Vikings in every single one of their games for better or for worse. I still think they're a better team than oddsmakers are giving them credit for, even with Justin Jefferson sidelined. They're still seventh in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.7) heading into Week 7.

Meanwhile, the 49ers may be seeing a bit of a dip in their production after an unbelievable start to their season. As of writing this article, the 49ers have Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams all on the injury report. The Vikings may be seeing them at the perfect time.

I'll take the seven points with Minnesota.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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