Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 8 Picks for Every Game
Our streak of three-straight profitable weeks comes to an end as the Road to 272 Bets took a hit in Week 7. There's still over half the season left so we have plenty of time to make up what we lost.
If you don't already know, there are 272 regular season games in the NFL and I'm placing a bet on every single one of them. Last week, I went 5-8 (-3.38 units), which brings my season-long record to 54-50-2 (+1.50 units).
If you want to know the rules I'm following for this, I broke them down in the Week 1 edition of this article. Also, you can look back at my full record so far this season over at Betstamp.
If you want to tail any of the bets I've placed this week (or if you want to fade me and take the opposite side), I recommend you do so at Bet365. For a limited time, new users will receive $150 in bonus bets when they place their first $5 wager! All you have to do to take advantage of this offer is click the link below and sign up for an account!
There are no teams on a bye this week, which means we have a full 16-game slate to bet on. Let's dive into my best bet for each of them.
NFL Week 8 Best Bets for Every Game
Bills -8.5 (-110) vs. Buccaneers
Everyone is out on the Bills right now. People are (wrongfully) calling them frauds and their stock couldn't be lower. That means it's time for us to buy in on them.
Listen, I'm the king of calling out fraudulent teams in the NFL. The Bills aren't one of them. The term fraud should be saved for teams with good records whose underlying stats show they're actually not that good. The Bills are the opposite of that. They're a team with a not so good record that has a ton of great underlying stats.
Their offense is third in EPA/play, their defense is ninth in Opponent EPA/Play, and 10th in Net Yards per Play. If they have one major weakness that they should be rightfully worried about, it's their run defense. They rank 31st in opponent yards per carry (5.2) and are in the bottom 10 in both opponent EPA/Rush and opponent rush success rate.
But, what are the Bucs absolutely terrible at? Running the football. They're averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (31st in NFL) and they're dead last in rush success rate.
It's a great stylistic matchup for the Bills and it's time for them to remind everyone they're a true contender in the AFC.
Rams +230 at Cowboys
I'm going to continue to get aggressive with my moneyline upsets of the week as this time I'm targeting the Rams to take down the Cowboys? Remember when the Cowboys were upset by the Cardinals? Remember when they were steamrolled by the 49ers? Apparently not because one close win against a bad Chargers team later, and people are calling them NFC contenders again. Yuck.
The Rams are better than their record indicates and they've had some bad luck in a couple of their losses. Heading into Week 8, they're ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.4), compared to the Cowboys at 14th (0.0).
The Rams are going to be a feisty team for anyone to face while Matt Stafford and their receiving corp is healthy. I think they're live underdogs to take down the Cowboys and I'm going to take a shot on them on the moneyline.
Falcons -2 (-110) at Titans
39.32% of the offensive yards gained by the Titans comes through running the football, which is the sixth highest rate in the NFL. Naturally, a team that can stop the run is going to matchup well against them.
The Falcons rank 10th in opponent yards per carry (3.7), sixth in opponent rush success rate (34.5%), and first in opponent rush EPA (-0.242). Yeah, I'd say they're well equipped to shut down this Titans offense.
Overall, the Falcons are better than you may think, ranking 11th in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.3). If it wasn't for ill-timed turnovers, their box scores, and maybe even record, would look a lot better.
Call me a biased fan all you want, but I think the Falcons should be favored by more than a field goal in this one.
Dolphins -9 (-110) vs. Patriots
While betting on the NFL, we need to constantly remind ourselves to not overreact to last week's results. Yes, the Patriots finally had a good game by upsetting the Bills and the Dolphins looked uninspired against the Eagles, but this is still a game between arguably the best offense in the NFL and the worst offense in the NFL.
In fact, the Dolphins offense is averaging 3.0 more yards per offensive snap than the Patriots. Miami is also first in EPA/Play and the Patriots are dead last.
Miami wins and covers in this AFC East showdown.
Vikings +100 vs. Packers
I've said it before and I'll say it again; I'll continue betting on the Vikings every single week until the oddsmakers set their odds at a price that I think reflects how I evaluate this team. So far, that has yet to happen and their performance on Monday night against the 49ers has begun to show people what I'm talking about.
They were already top 10 in plenty of metrics and then outgained the 49ers 6.8 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play.
Then there's the Packers who are continuously getting worse. Despite playing the Lions, Raiders, and Broncos in their last three games, they have a -0.4 net yards per play over that span and Jordan Love hasn't been able to look good against some of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
The Vikings are the far superior team and will get the job done in Week 8.
Panthers +130 vs. Texans
I'm buying low on the Panthers coming off the bye week. Are they a good team? No, but they aren't the worst team in the NFL by almost any metric. They're biggest weakness is they can't stop the run, ranking 28th in opponent yards per carry (4.9) and last in opponent rush success rate (48.8%).
Luckily for them, the Texans struggle when it comes to running the football. They're 29th in rush success rate and are averaging only 3.2 yards per rush.
I think Bryce Young has looked marginally better in each start this season and it's only a matter of time before they get a win. I think this home game against the Texans is a perfect time for that to happen.
Jets vs. Giants OVER 36.5 (-110)
An OVER bet between these two teams is going to seem like an ugly one, but at 36.5, I think the total is set at too low a number. In my opinion, in order for a total this low to be justified, both defenses playing in the game have to be elite.
We already know the Giants defense isn't elite, despite holding the Commanders to a single touchdown last week. Meanwhile, the Jets defense hasn't been as good as they were last season and in my opinion, are overvalued in the betting market.
The Jets defense is just 16th in opponent EPA/Play and 15th in opponent yards per play. Not the type of defensive numbers I'd like to see in a game with a total in the mid 30s.
It's an ugly bet because I don't trust either offense, but based on both team's defensive numbers, this total is much too low.
Jaguars -2.5 (-112) at Steelers
I hate that I have to bet on this game because it's a matchup between two of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They both have winning records but are 21st and 27th in Net Yards per Play.
I'll go with the Jaguars since I feel they actually had an impressive performance in their most recent win over the Saints on Thursday night. Meanwhile, I've been yet to be impressed by a single win by the Steelers this season.
The Jaguars defense has actually been extremely effective as well, ranking sixth in success rate, compared to the Steelers defense which comes in at 13th.
I'll reluctantly back the Jags in this spot.
Colts -1 (-110) vs. Saints
I'm not betting on the Saints for the foreseeable future. Their offense causes me actual physical pain to watch. Despite having a ton of talent on paper, they run one of the worst playbooks I've ever seen that results in approximately 15 dump offs to Alvin Kamara a game.
The Colts, on the other hand, are actually a pretty darn good team. They're eighth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.4) and if it wasn't for their 1.7 turnovers per game, they'd be given a lot more credit for how they've played.
I'll back them as favorites of a point at home.
Eagles -6.5 (-110) at Commanders
Last week against the Dolphins was the first time this season we saw that the Eagles can dominate teams through the air even when their run game is shut down. If they fire on all cylinders like that on a weekly basis, they're going to be tough to stop.
This game is a stylistic nightmare for the Commanders. Not only can they not stop the run on defense, but their offensive line will be ate alive. Sam Howell is being sacked on 13.51% of his dropbacks, the second highest rate in the NFL.
Yes, the Commanders took the Eagles to overtime when they played in Week 4, but Philadelphia recorded five sacks in that game and this is a much better version of the Eagles than what we saw in that game.
Fly Eagles Fly.
Seahawks -3 (-102) vs. Browns
Every single week I become more and more convinced that the Seahawks are a contender in the NFC. They might just be the third-best team in the conference behind the Eagles and the 49ers. Heading into Week 8, they rank fifth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.8, behind only the Dolphins, Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs. That's some pretty good company to be in.
We all know the Browns have an elite defense, but 46.21% of their offensive yards gained come through running the football, the single highest rate in the NFL. Now, they face a Seahawks team that's third in both opponent yards per carry (3.5) and first in opponent rush success rate (31.4%).
Without being able to effectively run the football, the Browns offense is going to be lost.
I'll back the Seahawks to win and cover the short spread.
49ers -5.5 (-105) vs. Bengals
After looking invincible through the first five weeks, the 49ers have looked human lately, losing two straight games to the Browns and the Vikings. Does that mean we should keep betting against them? Absolutely not.
The Bengals stink by just about every metric you can find and if those numbers hold up, the 49ers should roll them. Cincinnati is 31st in Net Yards per Play (-1.4), 26th in EPA/Play, and 18th in opponent EPA/Play.
Yes, the bye week may make Joe Burrow look like the Joe Burrow of old again, but until I see it, I'm not going to back this team with my money. Even in their wins this season they've been largely outplayed.
At anything less than a touchdown, I'll back the 49ers.
Ravens -8.5 (-108) at Cardinals
I hope you invested in some Ravens futures last week because their dominant win against the Lions on Sunday showed everyone that they're a force to be reckoned with and taken seriously. They're second in the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, behind the Dolphins. Their defense has been dominant and their offense finally brought their "A" game.
Now, they face a Cardinals team that has truly fallen off a cliff over the past few weeks after looking feisty to open the season. They have a Net Yards per Play of -1 over their last three games and their quarterback situation is a disaster.
The only thing they do well is run the football, but I have no confidence they'll be able to do that to any level of effectiveness against the Ravens.
Broncos +8 (-110) vs. Chiefs
It's always scary to bet against the Chiefs, especially when the team you're betting on is one of the worst in the league. But, the truth of the matter is the Broncos have improved significantly since the first few weeks of the season. They're still bad, yes, but they aren't an auto-fade like they were for a while.
These two teams just played a couple of weeks ago and the Broncos held the Chiefs in check for the most part until late in the game. Despite not covering that game, the Broncos did one thing very well; running the football. They averaged 5.0 yards per carry throughout the game.
That adds up when you notice the Chiefs are 30th in opponent EPA/Rush and 26th in opponent yards per carry. For the season, the Broncos are averaging 5.1 yards per rush, the fourth best mark in the NFL.
If they can lean on their run game at home and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, I wouldn't be surprised if they can keep this score in check and cover the spread.
Chargers -8.5 (-110) vs. Bears
Every thing in me wants to bet against the Chargers. They are statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL and their defense is historically bad. With that being said, we need some context for this game. One thing we need to keep in mind is Tyson Bagent will start for them once again.
Sure, he's a good story and had a solid game against the Raiders, but now he's playing under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football in Los Angeles. There's a very real chance that Bears bettors will be sitting at halftime thinking "Did I really bet on a rookie from Shepherd University on Sunday Night Football?"
Something else we should consider is the Bears secondary has been horrific this season, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Justin Herbert has a perfect defense to face in a bounce back spot for his offense.
I think Chargers are going to run away with this one.
Raiders +9.5 (-110) at Lions
The Lions were dominated in such a significant way that a lot of their metrics dropped from being elite to above average in a single game. They were outgained 9.1 yards per play to 4.7 yards per play against the Ravens.
Obviously, they're better than their Week 7 showing, but it does show they aren't invincible. Their secondary is vulnerable and Jared Goff completed just 33-of-53 passes while getting sacked five times.
In my opinion the Lions win this game, but can they steamroll the Raiders? I'm not so sure.
If you can still find the Raiders at +9, they're a great bet at that number.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!