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Rockies vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 23 (Expect Rocky Outcome for Colorado in Milwaukee)

By Ben Heisler

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jose Ureña is a massive +245 on the road vs. the Milwaukee Brewers this evening.
Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jose Ureña is a massive +245 on the road vs. the Milwaukee Brewers this evening. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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The moment the Colorado Rockies leave hitter-friendly Coors Field, their magical carriage transforms back into a pumpkin almost instanteously.

Colorado is just 15-28 away from home in 2022, compared to 28-23 in Denver this season.

The oddsmakers don't expect much to change Saturday night when they head to Milwaukee to match up against the Brewers at 7:10 p.m. ET. Two right-handers will take the mound as José Ureña (1-1, 2.05 ERA) faces Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 3.93 ERA).

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Rockies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Rockies +1.5 (+110)
  • Brewers -1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Rockies +245
  • Brewers -275

Total:

  • 8.5 (OVER -105 | UNDER -115)

Rockies vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

With both pitchers sporting low ERAs, along with the Rockies' propensity to fall apart offensively away from home, why consider the over here?

The first is the odds. Milwaukee is a massive favorite, nearly listed at 1/3 odds on the board. They're projected on their own for 5.5 runs and the number continues to climb.

Second, Ureña's ERA is not as it appears. At face value, 2.05 appears to be excellent, but his expected ERA (xERA) is nearly a full THREE runs higher at 4.87, and his expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is 5.27.

Ureña also can't miss bats, especially vs. left-handed bats. Via Inside Edge, he's struck out only 8% of left-handed batters since last year. That's by far the lowest amount in baseball. Milwaukee has plenty of left-handed bats that can cause damage in their lineup, including Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez.

Woodruff should rack up plenty of swings and misses, as I highlighted earlier today in our "Best MLB Props" article, but you also can't expect him to go deep consistently either. If Milwaukee gets off to a big lead, look for them to throw in a few meddling relievers that the Rockies may actually be able to get to for a few runs to boost the over to a victory.

LEAN: OVER 8.5 (-105)

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