Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 7
By Reed Wallach
Sam Houston State is still searching for the team's first win in its first year in the FBS ranks after nearly defeating Liberty as three-touchdown underdogs last week.
The Bearkats are back at it on Wednesday night against New Mexico State, who is fresh off a mid-week win in Week 6 against Florida International. Sam Houston State has been feisty all season, can the team pull an upset win and get on the board?
Let's break it all down in this week's betting preview:
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread and Total
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State Betting Trends
- Sam Houston State is 3-2 against the spread (ATS)
- New Mexico State is 4-2 ATS this season
- New Mexico State has gone OVER in all three games as favorites
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, October 11
- Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
- Sam Houston State Record: 0-5
- New Mexico State Record: 3-3
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Key Players to Watch
Sam Houston State
Keegan Shoemaker: Shoemaker nearly engineered a 99-yard game winning touchdown drive to knock off Liberty, but the Bearkats got stopped at the one yard line in the final seconds. Shoemaker has struggled for much of this season, but has passed for over 250 yards in both near wins over the last two weeks, including building a double digit lead against Jacksonville State. The SHSU offense is trending upwards, even if the wins don't show yet.
New Mexico State
Diego Pavia: Pavia has been a do-it-all threat for the Aggies, leading the team in rushing and passing for 1,230 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. The NMSU offense has been explosive this season with Pavia making plays, but needs to convert more effectively. The team is 113th in red zone touchdown percentage and is averaging a national average 30 points per game despite being top five in yards per play.
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick
New Mexico State's offensive numbers look strong, but I believe it's being lifted up by playing easy competition. The Aggies have played all but one team 99th or worse in run defense according Pro Football Focus. Sam Houston State is slightly above average against a difficult strength of schedule that features Air Force, BYU and Houston.
In the Aggies lone matchup against a formidable rush defense, Liberty, the team only ran 49 plays and lost 33-17.
While Sam Houston State's offense leaves a ton to be desired, the team has been competitive over the last two weeks, losing in overtime two weeks ago despite leading nearly the entire game and nearly taking down the Conference USA favorites Liberty on the road.
The offense still is middling to poor, but the defense is resilient and this feels like the perfect storm for the Bearkats to get its first win against an inflated New Mexico State team that is 112th in defensive success rate.
If you want to bet on Sam Houston State, do it at Caesars Sportsbook, who is matching new users first bet up to $1,000.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!